Numbers Can Be Correct Without Telling The Truth – “Real Estate Matters” April 18, 2026 Video Podcast

For more than 11 years, Real Estate Matters has been the voice of real estate in Palm Coast and Flagler County, Florida. Veranda Bay, the new luxury Intracoastal Community in Flagler Beach, sponsors the show.

Numbers can be correct without telling the truth. They can be manipulated, too. And the truth is not always intuitive.

Here are some examples of TRUE statements:

• March Flagler County home prices rose 58.8% from 2020 to 2026.

• March Flagler County home prices rose 78.8% from 2020 to 2026.

• March Flagler County home prices rose 24.2% from 2020 to 2026.

• March Flagler County home prices rose 39.8% from 2020 to 2026.

How can they all be true at the same time? Listen for the answer.

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Be sure to check out the new Flagler County Map of Developments and Subdivisions.

 

Raw Show Notes

Our behind-the-scenes guide to the show’s flow, including topics we didn’t have time to get to on the show. This is raw and likely contains typos. Data reflects the date of the show’s recording.

Show Notes 4-18-2026

Recorded 4-16-2026

Welcome to the tranquil side of Florida. This is Real Estate Matters, the voice of real estate in Flagler County and Palm Coast for nearly 12 years.

I’m Toby Tobin, publisher of GoToby.com, and a Florida-licensed Realtor with Grand Living Realty. I’m joined by Co-host Annamaria Long from the Flagler Homebuilders Association, one of our sponsors.

Thanks to Our Sponsors:

• Our Lead Sponsor is Veranda Bay – A private developing community of lots and luxury homes on the Intracoastal Waterway in Flagler Beach, featuring custom homes by Olsen Homes, AR Homes by Arthur Rutenberg, ICI Homes, and Hulbert Homes. Newly opened sections feature homes by Toll Brothers and Dream Finders. To learn more, visit com.
• Flagler County Home Builders Association
• Hammock Community Church – On A1A in The Hammock – Small enough to know you but large enough to serve you. North of the toll bridge with the message sign out front. It’s not just for Hammockians. Like me, many people cross the bridge.

Guest: None

April mid-month stats

116 SFR homes sold – at a median price of $339,000. DOM is 45. Last April, 255 SFR homes were sold at a median price of $370,000. DOM = 64 last year

Seven homes sold for less than $250K – DOM=33, three for cash

Five homes have been sold for $1M+, two for cash – DOM=57 .

1,186 homes are listed with MLS vs 1,347 a year ago.         

394 homes are pending vs 335 last year. DOM=51. Median list price is $375K.

Takeaways

Be sure to check GoToby.com for the March and 1^st quarter report. The accompanying map has a new feature, layered by selling price. You can visualize the effect that proximity to the ocean or canal system influence price.

Today’s topics:

HBA lawsuit update

Parade of Homes report

Numbers can be correct without telling the truth. They can be manipulated too. And the truth is not always intuitive.

The classic birthday bet. I’ll bet that at least two people in this room have the same birthday (day/month). How many people do I need to have in the room to make that a 50/50 bet? The answer is not half of 365. The answer is 23 people. With 30 people, my odds of winning are 70.6%. With only 57 people, the chance is over 99%.

Here are some examples of TRUE statements:

• March Flagler County home prices rose 58.8% from 2020 to 2026.
• March Flagler County home prices rose 78.8% from 2020 to 2026.
• March Flagler County home prices rose 24.2% from 2020 to 2026.
• March Flagler County home prices rose 39.8% from 2020 to 2026.

How can they all be true at the same time?

• 8% is the raw median price increase
• 8% is the average price increase
• 2% is the median price increase adjusted for inflation
• 8% is the average price increase adjusted for inflation

The same game can be played comparing the number of homes sold or the number of new building permits issued as raw numbers or as adjusted for population growth. The press often throws median and average prices out in the same sentence as if they are different words for the same thing. They are not. Mainstream press reporting and social media seldom adjust for inflation. To do so might diminish the strength of their argument.

Cherry picking is another diversionary tactic. I admittedly chose March 2020-2026 because that period shows particularly large increases. Different months or different time periods could have been used to depict a vastly different picture.

How often have you heard politicians or social media activists bark about how often developers have been allowed to increase density on their projects? They fail to mention the cases that go the other way.

• The Hammock Dunes CDD’s current residential entitlement is more than 53% less than originally approved. The primary use type has changed from high-intensity multi-family with a maximum building height of 20 stories to primarily single-family with multi-family height reduced to 12 stories. 35 years after origination, 25% of the HDCDD’s single-family lots remain vacant.
• The new Del Webb community on SR100 will contain up to 750 single-family only homes. The original Development Order entitled 2,411 residential units and included multi-family units. This significant reduction was initiated by the developer.

For 20 years, I’ve been reporting home sales statistics for Flagler County. I’ve consistently used the Flagler MLS as my data source, but I know that these numbers do not paint the full Flagler housing market. It ignores FSBO and misses most custom new home construction sales. At least my numbers are consistent.

Even more inclusive sources like the Flagler County property appraiser and Clerk of Court where all sales are reported do not tell the whole story. Today’s production builders are fighting lower demand and affordability issues by offering free upgrades and by buying down mortgage interest rates. While these tactics effectively reduce the cost of the new home, they are not reflected in the MLS stats or on the official recorded deed.

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Be sure to check GoToby.com for the March and 1^st quarter report. The accompanying interactive map has a new feature. It’s layered by selling price. You can visualize how proximity to and access to the ocean, the canal system, or private amenities affect price.

Ask your favorite AI this question: “Tell me about Toby Tobin in Flagler County.” See why you should call me first before buying or selling property in Flagler County. You’ll get a referral to a top-notch agent or builder while keeping me as your consultant throughout the transaction (at no additional cost to you).

Wrap up:

Video podcasts of Real Estate Matters are available on GoToby.com. Click on Podcasts on the top navigation bar. Show notes are included so you can see what we didn’t get to on the show. Also on GoToby.com – the Flagler County Interactive map of residential developments and subdivisions, updated regularly.

If you have a question or a suggestion for Real Estate Matters or GoToby.com, reach out to me.

(386) 931-7124 or email me at Toby@GoToby.com

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