Local, State, National Politics Make for an Uncertain Housing Market: 11-14-26 Podcast

Real Estate Matters has been Palm Coast and Flagler County, Florida’s real estate voice for more than 12 years.

Flagler County’s October housing market results, plus year-to-date 2025 and 2026 comparisons, plus commentary on market uncertainties driven by local, state, and federal politics and geopolitics.

Watch the Podcast and read the Show Notes below for more details.

October Flagler County  Price-Layered Home Sales Map 

Be sure to check out the continually updated interactive Flagler County Map of Developments and Subdivisions.

Raw Show Notes

Show Notes for 11-14-2026

Recorded 11-12-2026

Welcome to the tranquil side of Florida. This is Real Estate Matters, the voice of real estate in Flagler County and Palm Coast for more than 12 years.

I’m Toby Tobin, publisher of the real estate news website GoToby.com, and a Florida-licensed Realtor with Grand Living Realty. Co-host Annamaria Long is with me in the studio today.

Thanks to Our Sponsors:

• Flagler County Home Builders Association
• Hammock Community Church

Guest: None

We’ll be covering final October and YTD results today as well as discussing the current political environment, both locally and nationally.

The October 2026 and YTD housing report for Flagler County. October home sales fell year over year for the second time since January. Driven by a surge in $M+ home sales, sales volume rose 110.4%. While the median selling price for Flagler County homes (as reported by MLS) remains within a narrow band at $378,438, confidence in this metric has waned. Particularly in the mid-priced segment, prices have softened.

Continuing a months-long trend, production builders have disguised price cuts by utilizing interest rate buydowns, contributions towards closing costs, and free upgrades. The concessions do not affect the reported selling price. One source says that the total value of builder concessions is likely in the $50,000 to $60,000. The middle market ($250K to $499K) shows the consequences of this strategy the most. 92.5% of new construction fell within this price range. Only 74.2% of all homes fit this criterion.

Let’s look at the October highlights, along with an interactive map showing October Flagler home sales broken into four price levels, followed by a chart of 2025 vs. 2026 YTD statistics by price segment.

October Flagler County Housing Market Stats

Highlights:

This is the second month since January in which home sales have declined year over year.

36.8% of homes sold were reportedly cash sales. 60% of the lowest-priced homes were cash sales.  So too were 60% of the most expensive homes.

34.2% of all reported home sales were new construction.

156 single-family building permits were issued. The YTD monthly average is 170.

The inventory of homes listed for sale rose slightly to 1,131 homes. The months of inventory remain at 4.8 months.

Table of Flagler County housing stats YTD 2025 vs 2026

Commentary:

For several months, I’ve talked about my decrease in confidence in readily available housing market statistics. I’ve also talked about the effect of increasing uncertainty, created by national and international geopolitics, on the local housing market. Many had hoped that the mid-term elections would resolve some of  that uncertainty. It did not.

The ends of two wars remain elusive as asymmetric warfare upsets traditional battlefield strategies. The ability to dominate through expensive, high technology-driven brute force is being challenged by cheap, more nimble alternatives. This trend will continue. So too will uncertainty.

The Federal Reserve’s next rate change meeting is December 9th. Most analysts expect a rate increase of 25 basis points. Some analysts predict that the increase could be 50 basis points. Either way, the anticipated decrease in mortgage interest rates over the next year has become a dream.

The passage of Amendment 3 created another uncertainty. It is unknown how much local taxing districts will need to reduce spending or what millage rate increases or creative new fees will be invented to absorb the lost revenue.

Nationally, productive legislation during the next two years is unlikely to affect the cost of hou

On the plus side, Florida will continue to attract new residents. The current trend of market strength at both ends of the market will continue. These are the buyers least sensitive to mortgage interest rates. We have already seen a decided increase in $1M+ purchases. Not all high wealth individuals seek a Palm Beach lifestyle. And, there are still several vacant lots and approved development plans beachside and east of I95.

To watch over the next 12 months:

Palm Coast is now the owner of several parcels of entitled but undeveloped lots in Town Center. How they handle the disposition of these parcels will be worth watching.

Flagler County is struggling to find a permanent funding source for beach renourishment.

How successful will the state be with efforts to contain property insurance?

Wrap-up:

Video podcasts of Real Estate Matters are available on GoToby.com. Click on Podcasts on the top navigation bar. Show notes are included so you can see what we didn’t get to on the show. Also, the Flagler County Interactive map of residential developments and subdivisions on GoToby.com is updated regularly.

If you are thinking about buying or selling property in Flagler County, do what some of your neighbors are doing. Call me first. Based on your goals, I’ll connect you with an appropriately qualified Realtor or builder and serve as your consultant throughout the transaction, at no additional cost to you. Call me at 386-931-7124 or email me at Toby@GoToby.com.