Local Builders’ 2026 Forecast – “Real Estate Matters” December 20, 2025 Video Podcast

For more than 11 years, Real Estate Matters has been the voice of real estate in Palm Coast and Flagler County, Florida. Veranda Bay, the new luxury Intracoastal Community in Flagler Beach, sponsors the show.

Local builders’ 2026 forecast. Local builders and suppliers share their projections for next year’s housing market.

Be sure to check out the new Flagler County Map of Developments and Subdivisions.

 

 

Raw Show Notes

Our behind-the-scenes guide to the show’s flow, including topics we didn’t have time to get to on the show. This is raw and likely contains typos. Data reflects the date of the show’s recording.

Show Notes 12-20-2025

Recorded 12-18-2025

Welcome to Real Estate Matters, for over 11 years, the voice of real estate in Flagler County and Palm Coast. Welcome to the quiet side of Florida.

I’m Toby Tobin, the publisher of GoToby.com, contributor to the Palm Coast Observer, and a Florida-licensed Realtor with Grand Living Realty. Co-host Annamaria Long is with me in the studio today.

Thanks to Our Sponsors:

• Our Lead Sponsor is Veranda Bay – A private developing community of lots and luxury homes on the Intracoastal Waterway in Flagler Beach, featuring custom homes by Olsen Homes, AR Homes by Arthur Rutenberg, ICI Homes, and Hulbert Homes. Newly opened sections feature homes by Toll Brothers and Dream Finders. To learn more, visit VerandaBay.com.
• Flagler County Home Builders Association
• Hammock Community Church – On A1A in The Hammock – Small enough to know you but large enough to serve you. North of the toll bridge with the message sign out front. It’s not just for Hammockians. Like me, many people cross the bridge.

Guest: Tony Amaral Jr. from Amaral Homes and Pools

December MTD stats:

• 142 Homes sold via the Flagler MLS at $395,000 vs 230 homes at $355,000K last December DOM = 78 this year
• $250K and lower = 14, 1 for cash, DOM=9. 9 sold last December 8 for cash.
• $1M or higher – 12, 11 for cash, DOM=10. 9 sold last December 5 for cash.
• Homes listed – 1,172
• Homes Pending – 322
• 5.8 months of inventory
• Median Price of homes pending – $372.5K
• GINNdex is down from 4.9 in July to 3.64
• Total cash sales MTD is 41.1%, the highest in the last two years by far. The average for the previous 23 months was 33.6%
• The average MTD price is $515K vs the $459K average over the previous 23 months, and the only month over $500K.

Observations:

December is often an odd month in housing. Year-end financial positioning decisions prevail. Both median and average sales prices are elevated. Cash is king. 

Did you know?

Of Florida’s 67 counties, Flagler ranks second in the per capita County, Municipal, and School Impact Fee collections with a total of $315.78 per capita vs $112.45 per capita for the entire state. Twenty counties have no impact fees. St Johns collects $227.18 per capita while Volusia collects $113.26. (measured in 2022-2023)

Today’s Topic – Where is the market headed in 2026? And why?

Will the mortgage rate be lower?

Will home sales increase?

Will prices be higher or lower? By how much? Why?

Are you seeing a wealth effect?

What is the homebuilders’ greatest challenge for the upcoming year?

Flagler County Residential Development Map

Thanks to an introduction article by Flagler Live, the map has received over 7,500 views. You can find it on GoToby.com on the Home Page. Click on the map image to reach the live map page.

Filler News:

For Sale by Owner transactions – better known as FSBOs – comprised just 5% of home sales during the past few years, beating out last year’s lowest on record of 7%, according to the National Association of Realtors®’ 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. Meanwhile, a record high of 91% of home sellers sold their homes with the assistance of a real estate agent.

The FSBO market share has been gradually shrinking over the last four decades, even as technological advances have entered more aspects of a real estate transaction. In 1985, FSBO sales accounted for up to 21% of home sales. The FSBO share has stayed mostly in the single digits since 2010.

Wrap up:

Video podcasts of Real Estate Matters are now available on GoToby.com. Click on Podcasts on the top navigation bar.

If you have a question or a suggestion for Real Estate Matters or GoToby.com, reach out to me.

(386) 931-7124 or email me at Toby@GoToby.com