August Newsletter – Residential, Lot, & Condominium Update, Building Permits, Commercial Projects and More

Some segments of the market are in better shape than others.

Click to Enlarge ChartAugust 2, 2007 – Palm Coast, Florida – The single family residential sector of the Flagler County real estate market continues to show resistance to further price and sales volume erosion. The Palm Coast lot market remains anemic. Meanwhile, lots in private communities and condominiums remain difficult or impossible to sell at current listed prices.

 

By most measures, July was not much different than June, or for that matter, April or May. Of the three sectors which I track closely, the single family housing sector remains the most stable. The last two quarters indicate that prices and sales volume have stabilized. In fact, July numbers for number of sales, total sales volume, and new building permits are all slightly above second quarter averages. Is this a sign that things are looking up or is it just evidence of closings resulting from the usual peak selling season (when sales contracts are signed) of April, May, and June? Only time will tell. The charts and following table highlight the market shifts over the past 2 ½ years.

 

Single Falmily Residential Home Sales & Building Permits
Quarter Homes Sold Total Sales ($000) Building Permits

1st ’05

505

127,348

928

2nd ’05

872

227,719

644

3rd ’05

885

244,531

915

4th ’05

652

193,095

428

1st ’06

426

129,306

545

2nd ’06

519

154,955

371

3rd ’06

428

120,289

144

4th ’06

328

94,342

84

1st ’07

357

103,235

92

2nd ’07

347

90,962

133

 

July: 

Homes Sold – 127

Total Sales ($000) – 34,123

Building Permints (residential) – 47

 

Click to Enlarge Chart

The table demonstrates how the trends in the number of homes sold and the total sales volume track with the number of building permits. Note: the median selling price is the price at which half the homes sold for less and half sold for more. This is a less volatile measure than the average because the sale of even one expensive home can affect the average significantly.

 

July also highlighted a few segments of the market that are still problematic – lots in gated communities, and condominiums.

 

The highly advertised auction of a batch of investor owned lots in Ginn communities yielded disappointing results. The first two lots, sold without reserve, yielded such disappointing prices that the seller withdrew the remaining three lots. The auction of a condominium in Surf Club attracted only spectators, no bidders.

 

Foreclosure sales of properties in both Ginn and LandMar communities as well as oceanfront and Intracoastal properties in Flagler Beach brought no outside interest, the only bidders being the plaintiffs (banks).

 

These segments share certain features: 

  • They are all discretionary purchases. People do not buy lots or condos because they need them right now.
  • They have higher carrying costs (HOA or condo association fees and membership dues), causing ownership costs to rises faster This, in turn, makes it more difficult for owners to drop prices.
  • No matter how many sellers there are, there is no market until there are buyers actually buying. That is to say that there is no market without transactions.

On the bright side, several expensive commercial projects have kicked off this year. Fourteen permits, each with construction values exceeding one million dollars, have been issued this year by Palm Coast. 

  • SuperTarget, Town Center – $8,500,000
  • Lowes, Cobblestone Village – $13,860,000
  • Hampton Inn – $6,398,000
  • Assisted living facility, 100 Magnolia Trace – $3,000,000
  • Belk’s, Cobblestone Village – $6,871,000
  • Federal Bank Trust, 108 Central Ave. – $1,626,000
  • Golf Clubhouse at the Cypress Course – $1,300,000
  • Medical Office Clinic, 21 Hospital Dr – $8,000,000
  • The Conservatory Clubhouse – $15,649,817
  • “Coconuts” Car Wash, Old Kings Rd – $1,200,000
  • Storage office building, 6 Hargrove Ln – $2,575,000
  • Space Coast Credit Union, 10 Leanni Way – $1,700,000
  • Cobblestone Village, 16 unit retail building – $2,335,000
  • Roma Court, Palm Coast Pkwy SE – $7,000,000

 

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