Young People Aging Much Faster than Their Parents – Is Mankind Doomed?
An April 1st Lesson on How the Media Misuses Numbers to Hype Stories
April 1, 2008 – Palm Coast, FL – At the ripe age of 64, I will age by slightly more than 1.5 percent during the next year (1÷64). During that same twelve months, one of our grandchildren, a 9-year old, will age by more than 11 percent while our 6-month old great grandson will grow an incredible 200 percent older. With each younger generation aging so much more rapidly than the preceding generation, surely humankind is doomed.
See how easy it is to twist numbers to make a point, even if the point is invalid? We are exposed to less extreme examples every day. For instance, The Daytona Beach News Journal’s front page headline today reads "A kiss is just a kiss, except when it’s a germ-fest. Database catalogs mouth’s 600 microbes." Yesterday, the media reported that cell phones may be more dangerous than smoking. Is kissing next?
It seems that much of the media doesn’t like good news. We’ve recently been bombarded from several sources with news of Florida’s housing market heading ever downward. The media cites that February numbers were lower than those of February one year ago. Well how about just a few months ago? Some reports didn’t even say which numbers were lower. Were there fewer homes sold? Or were the prices lower? Or was the total sales volume (sum of all sales dollars) down?
In fact, in Palm Coast and Flagler County, the median price of all single-family residential homes sold in February was up from January (as reported by MLS). And the number of homes sold in February was at its highest level since August ’07. Other Florida counties also reported gains. (See related story)
The population of Flagler County continues to grow, in spite of the downturn in the economy, the decrease in construction related jobs, and an increased unemployment rate. The Flagler County School District reports increased enrollment every month. A U.S. Census report last week confirmed Flagler’s growth, noting that it was ranked 6th among ALL U.S. counties, down from 5th the previous year and from 1st, the two years before that. Flagler’s population growth for 2000 to 2007 ranked it 2nd. It was first for the 2000 to 2006 period. One local paper chose to put a negative spin on the news with their headline "Flagler Falls out of Top Spot for Growth." I chose instead, "Flagler County Still Makes Top Ten List of Fastest Growing Counties in the U.S."
Now we learn that Palm Coast has grown at a faster rate than any other city in the country, not only last year, but for the past seven years. I surveyed real estate representatives who were marketing at the recent Ginn Tournament at The Ocean Course at Hammock Beach. They were unanimous in their opinion that there was a marked difference in people’s attitude this year vs. last. Last year’s most frequent question was "When do you think we will hit bottom?" This year, visitors mostly agreed that this is the time to buy.
Just because it’s called "news" doesn’t mean it’s free of editorial bias. February numbers are really down from last February. But does that really represent the true picture of the market today? I don’t think so. Always be a little skeptical of what you read or hear.
And enjoy the rest of April Fools Day.
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