September Pending Home Sales Down, Still Higher Than a Year Ago

Pending home sales declined in September, although activity remains above a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Palm Coast, FL – October 27, 2011 – Pending home sales declined in September, although activity remains above a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, fell 4.6 percent to 84.5 in September from 88.6 in August but is 6.4 percent higher than September 2010 when it stood at 79.4. The data reflects contracts but not closings.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the housing market is being excessively constrained. “A combination of weak consumer confidence and continuing tight lending criteria held back home buyers, even though the private sector added nearly 2 million net new jobs in the past 12 months,” he said.

The PHSI in the Northeast declined 4.7 percent to 60.6 in September but is 4.0 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index dropped 6.2 percent to 71.5 in September but remains 12.3 percent higher than September 2010. Pending home sales in the South fell 5.5 percent in September to an index of 91.6 but are 5.0 percent above a year ago. In the West the index declined 2.1 percent to 105.8 in September but is 5.6 percent higher than September 2010.

“America’s monetary policy is contradictory and confusing, where some consumers with the best financial capacity and top-notch credit scores pay higher mortgage interest rates,” Yun said. “The Federal Reserve evidently has been attempting to lower mortgage rates, yet more consumers are faced with taking out jumbo loans that carry higher interest rates.”

Yun emphasized the need to reinstate higher loan limits in 42 states. “Just leaving excessive cash to sit in banks and not work into the economy is a drag on the overall recovery,” he said. “We need a comprehensive approach to address housing issues – not additional impediments.”

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales; it coincides with a level that is historically healthy.