Palm Coast and Flagler Foreclosures Down: Meaningless Data
Too many extraneous factors affect the foreclosure process to draw conclusions. Many foreclosures withdrawn to fix document problems are being re-filed. Court loads also affect case progress.
Palm Coast, FL – July 11, 2011 – The media is awash with daily reports on the nation’s foreclosure situation. It’s not too difficult to find foreclosure data. It is difficult to make any sense out of Palm Coast and Flagler County foreclosure numbers. Normally, here is what to expect:
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Home sales and prices rise, reach unsustainable levels, then tumble.
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Within month of the drop in sales, delinquencies will begin to rise.
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Many of the delinquent homeowners default, opening the door for a foreclosure filing.
This is where the process becomes more convoluted and difficult to follow. It has been taking 1 to 2 years for most foreclosures to complete the journey to the foreclosure auction block, where typically the lender takes back the property. Of the scores of foreclosure sales scheduled over the next two months most were originally filed in 2008, 2009, and 2010. There are even a handful of foreclosures filed in 2007.
As seen in the following graph, most foreclosures don’t end up in a courthouse sale. Alternatives include:
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Deed in lieu of foreclosure
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Loan modification
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Refinancing
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Short sale
The worst times were from 2007 to early 2010, when the number of foreclosure filings exceeded the number of homes sold. The data indicated in the graph below makes sense up until early 2010. That’s when the foreclosure documentation s@#t hit the fan. As a result, many foreclosures were withdrawn by lenders’ attorneys in order to bring their documents into compliance. (If you are going to fake a document, you should at least get the dates right.)
Suddenly the number of foreclosure filings dropped, as did the number of foreclosure sales. Upcoming foreclosure filings will be a mix between new filings and those being re-filed. It will be difficult to draw any conclusions from the data.
Please take the time to answer the following poll.
Home prices to remain stable
I don’t think there will be any meaningful increases in home prices during the remainder of this year. Condo prices are beginning to show some price appreciation as foreclosure & short-sale supply dwindles.