Liars Figure and Figures Lie

For more than 11 years, Real Estate Matters has been the voice of real estate in Palm Coast and Flagler County, Florida. Veranda Bay, the new luxury Intracoastal Community in Flagler Beach, sponsors the show.

While numbers are often taken as objective truths, they can be misleading without proper context. The way data is presented or interpreted can create misconceptions, especially in real estate, where statistics such as home sales, median prices, and days on market are frequently cited. These figures can be manipulated or misunderstood, leading to inaccurate conclusions about the market. It is important to look beyond the numbers and understand the full story they tell.

Be sure to check out the new Flagler County Map of Developments and Subdivisions.

Raw Show Notes

Our behind-the-scenes guide to the show’s flow, including topics we didn’t have time to get to on the show. This is raw and likely contains typos. Data reflects the date of the show’s recording.

Show Notes 1-31-2026

Recorded 1-29-2026

This is Real Estate Matters, for over 11 years, the voice of real estate in Flagler County and Palm Coast. Welcome to the quiet side of Florida. And Happy New Year.

I’m Toby Tobin, the publisher of GoToby.com, and a Florida-licensed Realtor with Grand Living Realty. Co-host Annamaria Long from the Flagler Homebuilders Association is in the studio with me today.

Thanks to Our Sponsors:

Our Lead Sponsor is Veranda Bay – A private developing community of lots and luxury homes on the Intracoastal Waterway in Flagler Beach, featuring custom homes by Olsen Homes, AR Homes by Arthur Rutenberg, ICI Homes, and Hulbert Homes. Newly opened sections feature homes by Toll Brothers and Dream Finders. To learn more, visit VerandaBay.com.
Flagler County Home Builders Association
Hammock Community Church – On A1A in The Hammock – Small enough to know you but large enough to serve you. North of the toll bridge with the message sign out front. It’s not just for Hammockians. Like me, many people cross the bridge.

Guest: None

January MTD stats – apparently the trend of recent months is continuing with the greatest level of activity on both ends of the price spectrum.

125 SFR homes sold MTD – at a median price of $372,000. DOM was 52. Last January, 163 SFR homes were sold at a median price of $377,500.

7 homes have been sold for $250K or less, 4 for cash and DOM of 3

4 homes have been sold for $1M+ with DOM = 88. All four were cash sales.

1,162 homes are listed with MLS vs 1,292 a year ago

338 homes are pending vs 273 last year

Permits – Bldg 3 at Ocean Village issued for 104 units.

Palm Coast – SFR permits issued – 67, applied – 63

Today’s topic:

While numbers are often taken as objective truths, they can be misleading without proper context. The way data is presented or interpreted can create misconceptions, especially in real estate where statistics such as home sales, median prices, and days on market are frequently cited. These figures can be manipulated or misunderstood, leading to inaccurate conclusions about the market. It is important to look beyond the surface of the numbers and understand the full story they tell.

Penny doubled daily bet
Two people in this room have the same birthday bet

I ran across an article by Realtor.com entitled “Florida Homeowners Pay the Most in HOA Fees.” Here is just one citation:

Roughly one-third (33.4%) of single-family homes have HOAs and more than four in five (84.8%) of condos and townhomes do.

It then goes on to cite average HOA fees and percentages of homes listed for sale with HOA’s. But condominiums and Townhomes are combined with single-family homes.

Townhomes and condominiums have more shared cost items than SFR associations do. It’s apples v oranges.

On social media, I often see ridiculous numbers quoted. On Nextdoor, Joy C claims that there are 2,600 homes for sale in Flagler County. According to the local MLS, that number should be close to 1,150.

Got an email several days ago from the local MLS sending out a set of reports from Florida Realtors covering 4^th quarter and December sales results. The numbers were vastly different that what the local MLS data shows. Turns out the reports were generated well before the final data input was collected.

I asked Gemini how many SF homes were sold in Flagler County in December. The response accurately quoted a GoToby.com article.

Asked how many SF homes are listed for sale in Flagler County, hoping to find Joy C’s source. Gemini say 1,745 to 1,750. CoPilot says 1,750 – 2,020 citing Zillow at 1,748

Problems found.

Double counting – a property may be listed in multiple MLS’s

Categories – Some sources count townhomes, duplexes, and condos as single family dwellings
Measurement not specified– average v median, and DOM – ADOM v CDOM
Timing – All information is not available at the end of the month
Cherry picking – common in social media (18,000 to 20,000 homes in the pipeline). They will not all be built and they certainly are not all being built now.
Corrupt data – August 2022 has been memorialized as the highest monthly home sales and total sales volume in the local MLS and hence, Florida Realtors, simply because it coincides with the conversion turnover of MLS platforms. 132 of the 373 transactions reported in that month actually occurred over the previous year. And people at the time wrote it off to Covid volume.

The HBA lawsuit against PC is largely based on the consultant’s use, or misuse, of statistics and estimates, right?

Wrap up:

Video podcasts of Real Estate Matters are available on GoToby.com. Click on Podcasts on the top navigation bar. Show notes are included so you can see what we didn’t get to on the show. Also on GoToby.com – the Flagler County Interactive map of residential developments and subdivisions, updated regularly.

If you have a question or a suggestion for Real Estate Matters or GoToby.com, reach out to me. (386) 931-7124 or email me at Toby@GoToby.com

An article with an interactive map of homes sold in December 2025 can be found here: December 2025 Housing Market Wrap- up for Flagler/Palm Coast

Liars Figure and Figures Lie – “Real Estate Matters” January 31, 2026 Video Podcast

Raw Show Notes