Flagler/Palm Coast Housing Market Is Stronger – “Real Estate Matters” November 29, 2025 Video Podcast

For more than 11 years, Real Estate Matters has been the voice of real estate in Palm Coast and Flagler County. Veranda Bay, the new luxury Intracoastal Community in Flagler Beach, sponsors the show.

Home sales in September, October, and November are up from last year. So too are the median price and total sales volume. Debunking the unbridled growth rumor, building permits are still down.

Be sure to check out the new Flagler County Map of Developments and Subdivisions.

Raw Show Notes

Our behind-the-scenes guide to the show’s flow, covering many topics we didn’t have time to get to on the show. This is raw and likely contains typos. Data reflects the date of the show’s recording.

Show Notes 11-29-2025

Recorded 11-26-2025

Welcome to Real Estate Matters, for over 11 years, the voice of real estate in Flagler County and Palm Coast. Welcome to the quiet side of Florida.

I’m Toby Tobin, the publisher of GoToby.com, contributor to the Palm Coast Observer, and a Florida-licensed Realtor with The Landmark Group at Compass. Co-host Annamaria Long is with us in the studio today.

Thanks to Our Sponsors:

• Our Lead Sponsor is Veranda Bay – A private developing community of lots and luxury homes on the Intracoastal Waterway in Flagler Beach, featuring custom homes by Olsen Homes, AR Homes by Arthur Rutenberg, ICI Homes, and Hulbert Homes. Newly opened sections feature homes by Toll Brothers and Dream Finders. To learn more, visit VerandaBay.com.
• Flagler County Home Builders Association
• Hammock Community Church – On A1A in The Hammock – Small enough to know you but large enough to serve you. North of the toll bridge with the message sign out front. It’s not just for Hammockians. Like me, many people cross the bridge.

Late November (as of 11-26)

• 177 Homes sold via the Flagler MLS at $365,000 vs 144 homes at $363,995 last November DOM = 53 this year
• FLASH – At the time the show was broadcast, sales had grown to 194 homes sold. The median price had risen to $366,000.
• $250K and lower = 9, 4 was cash, DOM 21
• $1M or higher – 7, 4 for cash, DOM 119
• Homes listed – 1,212
• Homes Pending – 326
• 3 months of inventory
• Median Price of homes pending – $385.5K
• GINNdex is down from 4.9 in July to 3.7 – under 4.0 for the first time in 13 months.
• Homes sold – up 14.9% in Sept, 20.4% in Oct, and 23.6% in Nov MTD
• Median price – Sept up 3.6%, Oct up 2.2%, Nov up 0.2%
• Total Sales – Sept up 6.4%, Oct up 4%, Nov MTD up 24.3%

Observations:

The Flagler/Palm Coast housing market is stronger. September, October, and November (MTD) all surpassed last year’s numbers for homes sold, median selling price, and total sales.

Last December was unusually strong, with 230 homes sold. The number of homes on the pending list today exceeds last year’s by 18.5%.

Today’s Topic – Growth or lack of a tax base, which is the problem?

We’ve already argued that the crux of Palm Coast’s infrastructure inadequacies stems from the original ITT growth plan, not from unbridled growth. Palm Coast’s present population is merely half the population the in-ground and transportation infrastructure was designed to serve (and to pay for).

Over the years, the city government has bent to voter pressure to keep taxes and utility rates low. Now, signs of infrastructure failure are visible.

It’s easy to blame the greedy developers and corrupt politicians for allowing unbridled growth to overwhelm our roads, water, sewer and stormwater management systems. Still, the facts do not support this argument.

Palm Coast has hundreds of miles of streets, water, and sewer pipes designed to serve 225,000 people, ultimately, but only half that number supports the maintenance of that system.

Built at the same time, the entire system is showing signs of age. Yet, developers keep applying for more permits and politicians keep approving them. What easy targets for our wrath.

Many locals were not here during the really high-growth era of the early two thousands, when both Flagler County and Palm Coast were, respectively, the fastest-growing county and city in the country.

In 2004, 62.7 SFR building permits per 1,000 residents were issued in the entire county. At the depth of the great recession in 2011, that number had plummeted to 1.6. 2025 is projected to be 12.0 permits. Last year, it was 17.3.

Vanishing American Dream

The American dream has always included owning a home and building equity over time. Indeed, for the middle class, accrued home equity is a pivotal source of retirement income. But housing is becoming increasingly out of reach as real estate values rise faster than income.

We are turning the middle class into a rental society. In 2025, the average net worth of homeowners is about $430,000, while renters average just $10,000—a staggering 43-fold difference.

How much of real estate wealth accumulation is simply inflation? How many cars can you buy today for the price of a house? Is the answer to that question much different from what it was 60 years ago?

So what will be the new American dream?

First, let’s look at possible solutions to the housing affordability problem.

Factory-built homes or modules, rather than site-built homes

Automation as in 3-D printed housing or robot construction

Standardized permitting regulations and building codes

Changing the financial ecosystem of homebuying:

• 50-year mortgage
• Variable rate mortgages
• Portable mortgages
• Land leases – popular in Europe

Does it make sense to embrace a rental society that diverts homeownership expenses to other sources of wealth accumulation?

Flagler County Residential Development Map

Thanks to an introduction article by Flagler Live, the map has received over 7,000 views. You can find it on GoToby.com on the Home Page. Click on the map image to reach the live map page.

Filler News:

For Sale By Owner transactions – better known as FSBOs – comprised just 5% of home sales during the past few years, beating out last year’s lowest on record of 7%, according to the National Association of Realtors®’ 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. Meanwhile, a record high of 91% of home sellers sold their home with the assistance of a real estate agent.

The FSBO market share has been gradually shrinking over the last four decades, even as technological advances have entered more aspects of a real estate transaction. In 1985, FSBO sales accounted for up to 21% of home sales. The FSBO share has stayed mainly in the single digits since 2010.

Wrap up:

Video podcasts of Real Estate Matters are now available on GoToby.com. Click on Podcasts on the top navigation bar.

If you have a question or a suggestion for Real Estate Matters or GoToby.com, reach out to me.

(386) 931-7124 or email me at Toby@GoToby.com