Deep Dive into the Flagler/Palm Coast Housing Market

May 29, 2026 – PALM COAST, Fla. – The April and 1st four months of 2026 housing market wrap-up for Flagler/Palm Coast is here. The interactive map of April home sales below shows the location, sale date, selling price, price per square foot, and living square feet for single-family homes in Flagler County reported through the Flagler County MLS. The map features four selling price layers, allowing visualization of the effect of location on prices.

Let’s take a deep dive into the Flagler/Palm Coast housing market based on April results and the first four months of 2026. Market indicators give no clear direction because today’s market is largely influenced by factors extending beyond local conditions. Both mortgage interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty are driving the market, but what if those issues were resolved? What local factors are likely to influence the Flagler/Palm Coast housing market in the coming months? What’s going on under the surface? Let’s dig into a pile of statistical horse manure to see if we can find a pony.

April and First Four Months 2025 to 2026 Comparisons

Year-Over-Year Highlights for April

• Home sales were up 9.8% (good)
• The median selling price was down 4.3% (poor)
• Price per square foot rose slightly in the $1M+ segment, showing a continuing strength in that sector.
• Days on Market (DOM) was down 23.4%. (good sign)
• Total sales volume, the truest measure of economic activity, was up 9.9% (very good)
• Building permits for single-family homes – 173 vs 228, down by 24.1%

First Four Months YOY Comparison – A large sample is always statistically better

• Home sales were up 13.3%
• The median price was up 1.1%
• Price per square foot relatively unchanged
• DOM down 16.7%
• Total sales volume was up by 11.9%
• Building permits – 762 vs 628, down by 17.6% (builder confidence is waning).

Digging Deeper – Are We Missing Something?

GoToby.com has used the Flagler MLS as its source of data for over 20 years. On the plus side, comparisons over time are valid without apologies. Yet, transaction data is consistently underreported. So, what’s missing?

New construction

Most, but not all, production builders participate in the MLS system, but a majority of custom builders do not. A one-year analysis of new construction building permits compared to MLS reported new construction sales suggests that about 50% of new construction sales are not reported via MLS. Analysis suggests that roughly 80 new home builds per month are not included in widely publicized monthly home sales reports.

Construction of new residences on the owner’s property

Building a new home on a vacant lot already owned does not create a real estate closing with a new deed. It’s simply an improvement to an existing property. Completion might have triggered a mortgage closing, but the amount of any down payment would remain unknown. The “all in cost” is not discoverable. This scenario describes a typical custom-build.

How real is the deed selling price?

Throughout 2025 and continuing today, production builders are offering buyer incentives. These include buying down the mortgage interest rate, contributions toward closing costs, and free upgrades (appliances, cabinets, flooring, screened lanai, landscaping, etc.).

 These upgrades dramatically affect the buyer’s purchase price but are not typically evidenced in the MLS-reported selling price or the publicly recorded deed. Concessions can total tens of thousands of dollars. So, reported sales prices should be viewed with a degree of skepticism, but to what extent? On the flip side, the unreported new construction transactions are typically higher-priced homes, which would raise the overall median selling price.

Builder/Developer Behavior

2026 Transactions of note

• Old Kings Village (201 entitled single-family units) – Geosam to Meritage Homes – 4/27/$/26 – $8,040,000
• Gables at Town Center – Paytas Homes to L Coastal Gardens – 3/23/26 – 65 lots – $7,728,000
• Hammock Park – Flagler Waterfront purchased 6.72 acres on A1A for $6,000,000 and plans 13-14 single-family lots
• 3/26, DR Horton purchased 41 lots in Hunters Ridge for $4.7M
• Lakeview Estates – 4/21 – Forestar sold 50 lots to TPG for $4,675,000
• Lakeview Estates – 2/24 – Forestar sold 50 lots to Pulte for $$4.5M
• 4/22 – JTL Grand Landings sold 26 lots to Dream Finders for 2,653,000
• 1/26 – Pulte Homes purchased 30 lots in Seminole Palms for $2,506,000

Builders are constantly adjusting their portfolios to match current conditions.

Flagler’s Bifurcated Residential Market

Two distinct markets exist east and west of the Intracoastal Waterway. This is illustrated by Flagler County’s condominium sales, both beachside and on the mainland. To a lesser extent, Interstate 95 also defines residential property values east and west. This is clearly evident in the interactive map at the end of this article.

• In January through April 2026, the beachside condo market represented only 55.6% of the number of units sold but 75% of the total condo sales volume.
• The overall decline in condo median prices over the four months is completely accountable by the mainland sales and is attributed to both the greater increase in units sold and the drop in the median price within that condo segment.

April numbers hint that the landside market may be turning to the plus side.

Still Looking for the Pony

It is clear that selling prices have remained relatively stable for a couple of years. So the number of buyers and sellers is in balance though the pool of each is limited by interest rates and uncertainty. The strength shown so far in 2026 (number of transactions and total sales volume) has occurred in spite of the reduced buyer and seller pools. I conclude that this underlying demand strength will unleash a more robust market once interest rates drop below 6% and geopolitical uncertainties are resolved.

Find Your Own Pony in the Property Appraiser Records

Check out your current property record. Florida real estate is revalued each year as of January 1. The Appraiser’s website now reflects their “working value” for the 2026 tax year. It’s still subject to change, but it gives us our earliest glimpse of where values were headed as of January 1. You will want to look at a property’s Just Value, compared to previous years while understanding the following:

1. Just Value does not represent the price you might realize if you sold your home. My rule of thumb is that it typically represents approximately 80%.
2. The value is “as of January 1 and is based on historical (2025) sales of comparable properties. It does not consider the 2026 market movements discussed above.

Another piece of information from the property appraiser offers some additional insight. A preliminary report of changes in projected taxable values for each of the taxing authorities within the county shows that the county and municipalities (with the exception of Flagler Beach) experienced a slight decline in taxable value on existing property but the decline was more than compensated for by the addition of taxable new construction value. (Social media warriors, take note.)

Interactive Map of April 2026, Flagler County MLS single-family home sales featuring:

Full Screen – The map can be expanded to full-screen

Zoom in and out

Layers – Four separate selling price layers

Click the panel in the upper-left corner of the map, then expand the layer to see individual addresses.

Click on an address or a home’s map symbol to bring up the sales details, including the sale date, complete address, living square feet, selling price, price/SF, and subdivision name.

Useful Links:

Map of Palm Coast/Flagler County Residential Developments

Flagler Property Appraiser—Check out your own and your neighbor’s property record cards, which have links to the property tax history. You will also find a property tax calculator there.

Clerk of Court – Search records for deeds, etc.

Ask your favorite AI, “Tell me about Toby Tobin in Flagler County.” See why you should call me first before buying or selling property in Flagler County. You’ll get a referral to a top-notch agent or builder, and I’ll remain your consultant throughout the transaction (at no additional cost to you).

Contact me:

Toby@GoToby.com

(386) 931-7124