The Vanishing American Dream – “Real Estate Matters” November 22, 2025 Video Podcast

For more than 11 years, Real Estate Matters has been the voice of real estate in Palm Coast and Flagler County. Veranda Bay, the new luxury Intracoastal Community in Flagler Beach, sponsors the show.

The vanishing American Dream. Housing costs are intractable. We are turning our middle class into a rental society. 

Be sure to check out the new Flagler County Map of Developments and Subdivisions.

Raw Show Notes

Our behind-the-scenes guide to the show’s flow, covering many topics we didn’t have time to get to on the show. This is raw and likely contains typos. Data reflects the date of the show’s recording.

Show Notes 11-22-2025

Recorded 11-19-2025

Welcome to Real Estate Matters, for over 11 years, the voice of real estate in Flagler County and Palm Coast. Welcome to the quiet side of Florida.

I’m Toby Tobin, the publisher of GoToby.com, contributor to the Palm Coast Observer, and a Florida-licensed Realtor with The Landmark Group at Compass. Co-host Annamaria Long is off today.

Thanks to Our Sponsors:

• Our Lead Sponsor is Veranda Bay – A private developing community of lots and luxury homes on the Intracoastal Waterway in Flagler Beach, featuring custom homes by Olsen Homes, AR Homes by Arthur Rutenberg, ICI Homes, and Hulbert Homes. Newly opened sections feature homes by Toll Brothers and Dream Finders. To learn more, visit VerandaBay.com.
• Flagler County Home Builders Association
• Hammock Community Church – On A1A in The Hammock – Small enough to know you but large enough to serve you. North of the toll bridge with the message sign out front. It’s not just for Hammockians. Like me, many people cross the bridge.

Guest: Eddie Herrera, co-founder and CEO of Alliance Financial Partners, Inc., a local wealth management company

Mid November (as of 11-19)

• 121 Homes sold via the Flagler MLS at $375,000 vs 144 homes at $363,995 last November, DOM = 52 this year
• $250K and lower = 5, 1 was cash, DOM 21
• $1M or higher – 4, 2 for cash, DOM 178
• Homes listed – 1,223, down from 1,252 last week. The number of homes listed exceeded 1,400 in both June and July
• Homes Pending – 330, up from 317 last week
• 2 months of inventory
• Median Price of homes pending – $388,445
• GINNdex is down from 4.9 in July to 3.95 – under 4.0 for the first time in 13 months

Observations

The local housing market is showing definite signs of strengthening. September and October both surpassed last year in both the number of homes sold and the median selling price. November is on track to do the same, even though the slowest 6 months for home closings over the past 20 years have been September through February.

DR Horton is back, pulling and applying for permits. There seems to be a sense that we will have a strong Spring selling season.

Today’s Topic – The vanishing American Dream

Housing affordability remains a drag on the housing market. Who is to blame? Most point to the mortgage interest rate, but 6+% is not historically high. Others point to the flood of immigrants.

In the end, the answer is more complex. It includes rising construction costs, increasing regulatory burdens, extended permitting times, a bias towards building larger, more expensive homes, and a patchwork of local zoning and building codes and regulations. Add to that the growing prejudice against multi-family housing, increased density, and general growth.

We have a shortage of housing inventory. Estimates vary widely, but on average they range from 4 to 5 million homes.

The American dream has always included owning a home and building equity over time. Indeed, for the middle class, accrued home equity is a pivotal source of retirement income. But housing is becoming increasingly out of reach as real estate values rise faster than income.

We are turning the middle class into a rental society. In 2025, the average net worth of homeowners is about $430,000, while renters average just $10,000—a staggering 43-fold difference.

How much of real estate wealth accumulation is simply inflation? How many cars can you buy today for the price of a house? Is the answer to that question much different from what it was 60 years ago?

So what will be the new American dream?

First, let’s look at possible solutions to the housing affordability problem.

Factory-built homes or modules, rather than site-built homes

Automation, such as 3-D printed housing or robotic construction

Standardized permitting regulations and building codes

Changing the financial ecosystem of homebuying:

• 50-year mortgage
• Variable rate mortgages
• Portable mortgages
• Land leases – popular in Europe

Does it make sense to embrace a rental society that diverts homeownership expenses to other sources of wealth accumulation?

Flagler County Residential Development Map

Thanks to an introduction article by Flagler Live, the map has received over 7,500 views. You can find it on GoToby.com on the Home Page. Click on the map image to reach the live map page.

Filler News:

For Sale By Owner transactions – better known as FSBOs – comprised just 5% of home sales during the past few years, beating out last year’s lowest on record of 7%, according to the National Association of Realtors®’ 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. Meanwhile, a record high of 91% of home sellers sold their homes with the assistance of a real estate agent.

The FSBO market share has been gradually shrinking over the last four decades, even as technological advances have entered more aspects of a real estate transaction. In 1985, FSBO sales accounted for up to 21% of home sales. The FSBO share has stayed mainly in the single digits since 2010.

Wrap up:

Video podcasts of Real Estate Matters are now available on GoToby.com. Click on Podcasts on the top navigation bar.

If you have a question or a suggestion for Real Estate Matters or GoToby.com, reach out to me.

(386) 931-7124 or email me at Toby@GoToby.com