NOAA Hurricane Strike Chart Shows NYC More Vulnerable than Flagler
Facing approaching Hermine, the NYC area has been hit by Category 3 hurricanes Carol (1954), Donna (1960), Gloria (1985) and Category 1 Belle (1976), not to mention sub-tropical but destructive Sandy.
PALM COAST, FL – September 3, 2016 – Thanks to Tim and Sara Hale for finding an enlightening graphic from NOAA. Tim posted it on Coastal Cloud’s Facebook page to highlight the reason they chose Flagler County to locate their company’s headquarters and its largest cloud technology delivery center.
The graphic shows hurricane strikes over the past 65 years. The New York City area has been hit by Category 3 hurricanes Carol (1954), Donna (1960), Gloria (1985) and Category 1 Belle (1976), not to mention sub-tropical but destructive Sandy (2012).
Category 2 hurricane David bracketed Flagler County, striking near Melbourne and again near Savanah, GA in 1979. Flagler’s only close call came from Category 2 Dora when it struck north of St. Augustine in 1964. Strikes include hurricanes that did not make direct landfall but did produce hurricane force winds over land.
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Meanwhile, tropical storm Hermine is headed up the east coast after making landfall near St. Marks, FL as a Category 1 hurricane. Hermine is expected to regain hurricane status once it nears the northeast where it is forecast to slow to a crawl and pound the Jersey Shore and Long Island with wind, rain and storm surges for several days.
If you are inclined toward prayer, please pray for those in Hermine’s path as well as those who suffered destruction in it’s wake.
Levitt & I.T.T. Design for The Palm Coast Project
‘ …Palm Coast has been designed to withstand what is termed ‘the 100 year Flood’.
From: Richard Vaughan, director of environmental affairs for the ITT Community Development Corporation
The PalmCoaster, Volume 11, Number 1, Winter/Spring, 1982, Front Cover Page, p 1., p 13.
Hurricane in Palm Coast? Not Likely
Like reports of Mark Twains’ death, reports of Florida hurricanes too have been greatly exaggerated.
Over the years people have become accustomed to thinking of hurricanes as the exclusive property of Florida. One reason might be that the National Hurricane Center is headquartered in Miami. Almost every hurricane news report originates in Miami, regardless of where the storm is located, be it 50 miles or 2,000 miles from Flroida.
What is a hurricane? it’s a large tropical cyclone with winds of at least 74 miles per hour, generally accompanied by heavy rains and high tides. The great spiral clouds of an average hurricane cover an area several hundred miles in diameter, although the area hit by the highest winds- those over 74 miles per hour-may only be 30 to 100 miles in diameter.
Hurricanes form over warm , tropical ocean areas and move to higher lattitudes like great spinning tops. Their movement is quite erratic. They can suddenly change directions, make loops, slow up or stop-and later move at 10 to 20 miles per hour. This forward speed of the hurricane system increases the fury of the circular winds flowing around the hurricane’s eye, or center.
The north American hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with most storms occuring in August, September and October.
The North Florida area isn’t immune to direct hits by hurricanes-no part of the United States’ gulf coast or eastern coastline is. But weather bureau records show that chances of a hurricane striking the Palm Coast region are considerably less than in most other coastal areas of the state and nation. Meteorologist Fred Crosby of the National Weather Service says,”the configuratioin of the coastline and the region’s latitude help explain the area’s relatively hurricane free record, which is based on the tracks of previous storms.”
“During the early stages of a tropocal storm,” says Crosby, ‘The movement is generally from the east to the west. The direction gradually changes…this movement pattern would reduce the probabiltiy of one of them directly hitting the northeast Florida coast.”
Looking at the past 100 years, Flagler and Volusia counties hold an envious distinction neither county ever received a direct hit from a full hurricane moving directly in from the ocean.
Although a total of 19 hurricane’s occuring during the 100-year period have posed serious threats and five have actually passed over the area, in each case those storms had already been over land for a number of hours and were greatly weakened in force and without the beach damage caused by ocean storms.
>——-The last hurricane to affect Palm Coast was Hurricane David, which brushed the area in early September, 1979. David’s highest wind gust recorded in Palm Coast was 59 miles per hour, and though it did drop 4.16 inches of rain over a 48 -hour period, no flood-related water damage occurred. One of the main reasons damage did not occur is because Palm Coast has been designed to withstand, what is termed, “the 100-year flood.” That, says Richard Vaughan, director of environmental affairs for ITT Community Development Corporation, means a flood that statistically could occur once in a hundred years could hit Palm Coast and no flood water would enter the houses. <------------ Here is a probablity table based on National Weather Service data showing the chances of hurricane making landfall at varioius Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Seaboard areas: Probability of Tropical Cyclone Making Direct Landfall during any given year: Coastline areas: Corpus Christi, Texas 1 : 8 Galveston, Texas 1 : 5 New Orleans, Louisiana 1 : 5 Pensacola, Florida 1 : 5 Apalachiocola, Florida 1 : 6 Tampa- St. Petersburg, Florida 1 : 10 Miami, Florida 1 : 6 Palm Coast, Florida 1 : 14 High and Low Temperatures in Palm Coast during December and January. ( As recorded by the Palm Coast Weather Bureau, Office of Environmental Affairs) Date, High, Low Dec. 1 84, 61 2 64 59 3 65 43 4 73 38 5 73 41 6 65 36 7 70 46 8 76 38 9 65 37 10 51 32 11 53 26 12 70 28 13 67 34 14 79 47 15 75 62 16 62 39 17 65 31 18 67 50 19 73 26 20 60 34 21 66 38 22 74 40 23 83 64 24 83 57 25 80 59 26 74 56 27 74 60 28 69 61 29 79 61 30 64 58 31 82 62 January 1 69 57 2 71 57 3 80 57 4 77 69 5 60 41 6 75 41 7 83 56 8 69 58 9 65 48 10 59 26 11 42 26 12 49 20 13 70 47 14 70 51 15 53 27 16 69 30 17 55 38 18 72 40 19 77 43 20 79 46 21 80 50 22 76 50 23 81 56 24 70 40 25 62 33 26 58 43 27 61 35 28 60 40 27 61 35 28 60 40 29 71 40 30 75 50 31 85 53 *********************************************************************************** Levitt & I.T.T. gargantuan 93,000 acres comprising Palm Coast Community Lands for their ' The Palm Coast Project ' was designed by Dr. Per Brunn , Technical University of Norway at Trondheim and also the University of Floridas' famed Coastal Engineering Department. ( Last year I contacted the University of Florida and sought info. for a Historic MARKER from them so Palm Coasters would know about Levitt & I.T.T.s design feat. They suggested to apply directly to the State of Florida Historic Preservation Offices. We'll add it to our massive bucket list. Also we later contacted Penn State because of their design progressive design of Sewer / Waste disposal here for ' The Palm Coat Project ' - it is in the pipeline - I'm speculating but I bet they will defer us to the State of Florida Historic Preservation Offices because of the tremendous importance of the Sewer design Plan ). Below from '...An Approach to a New City: Palm Coast...' 1972 by the father of Palm Coast Project Dr. J. Norman Young and Dr. Stanley Dea: Bio-Physical Environment and Pollution Control Issues of environment and ecology have captured the interest of government, industry, and most importantly, the public. Mirroring this concern for environmental quality, Palm Coast has committed major efforts toward preserving or enhancing the balance of nature in the planning and development of a future city for 750,000 . people. The issue at hand can be simply stated: is it possible to have environment and development as complementary, parrallel objectives, or are theymutually antagonistic to each other? Page 130 While many have emplasized the worst effects of urban or suburban land development, and certainly the effects are there, the point is that multiple land uses can be compatible and often are. It is the excess, promoted by undue short-term profits, which needs curbing. Aldo Leopold, one of our greatest ecologists, summed it up well: "A land ethic of course cannot prevent the alteration, management, and use of these resources, (water, plants, wildlife, etc.) but it does affirm their right to continued existence, and, at least in spots, in a natural state." 2 Ecologists have long known that nature and change go together spontaneously even in the absence of man. However, rapid and massive changes, resulting from poorly thought out tampering and natural ecosystems, have altered the course of nature in dramatic ecological shifts that can be seen everywhere. Contrasting such transformations, men such as Leopold call for controlled, rational change of natural resource usage, where decision making balances economics with total environmental quality. Ecology is defined as the study of the complex inter relationships between all living organisms--including man--and their living and non living surroundings. Myriad actions and interactions take place continuously as man, plants, and animals respond to variations in their surroundings and to each other. All these interactions form long chains of reactions that are necessary for the maintenance of life as we know it on the earth. In this interdependent web of life, small changes are likely to be felt and compensated for eventually throughout the system. The ideal basis for decision making in managing the ecology would be a clear image of the over all structure and function of nature as a system of component parts. Then planners and managers could see the strands in the web of environmental systems, "weight the tradeoffs of potential environmental harm against the benefits of construction, look at alternatives, and incorporate environmental safeguards into the basic design of new developments" 3 The safeguards, usually in the forms of technology, should provide that factor of safety whereby materials cannot accululate where they are not wanted. The overburdened natural processes by man, or sometimes nature, must be anticipated in advance. In general, natural systems are "closed', meaning that materials are transformed into vegetation , vegetation into animal life, and the latter returned to the air and soil to be recycled again and again. Waste, on the other hand, is a result of man's activities--e.g.open Page 131 sewers and dumps--which tend to develop into 'open' systems. Conscious effort must now be made toward closed systems that harmonize with natural processes. Infinite natural assimilative capacity cannot be assumed any longer. Wherever and whenever possible, resources that have been turned into 'waste' should be recycled into the ecosystem and be reused, either by present or future generations. For example, tidal action, nutrients, plant species, and shellfish are one such seashore ecosystem. It is fashionable to speak of systems analysis as an almost magical route to the solution of many problems, and indeed it is a powerful and necessary tool. One must recognize, however, that the environmental system is made up of a bewildering number of subsystems that often are only distantly interdependent. Therefore, the status of existing technology does not allow precise definition of the paths of energy and materials passing back and forth between organisms and environment. In the order of priorities, therefore, it has been incumbent upon environmentalists to control first those critical factors that lead to unfavorable alteration of surroundings, wholly or largely as a byproduct of man's actions. In the Palm Coast Project, major consideration has been given not only to preventing impairment of the air-water-land resource for beneficial human uses, but also to enhancing their properties as well. It has been management's philosophy and objective to provide the public with property in a quality environment, supported by highest-calibre engineering and design capability. To that end, many significant studies and action programs initiated at the inception of the project have been carried out to establish the feasibility of environment controls on development. The first task is to foresee a potential problem, then study the alternatives, and then establish a control. The below problems have been studies, and solutions thereto have been proposed in a 'first generation' effort toward this new form of city A. Waterwater Treatment and Disposal Study: A thorough analysis was made of Florida regulations and policies concerning wastewater treatment and discharge of treated effluent into surface water bodies ( rivers, streams, lakes, etc.) as well as into marine water bodies. Results of this study recommended 95% biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) reduction in secondary wastewater treatment and disposal by one of the fol- Page 132 lowing methods: (1) percolation, (2) spray irrigation, (3) evapo-transpiration ponds, (4) chemical treatment and mixed media filtration, or (5) drainage wells. Solution: Based upon these considerations, a tertiary quality central treatment plant has been designed and constructed using the percolation or recharge method for disosal. three beneficial environmental effects of this practice will be (1) to eliminate discharge into surface bodies and therby prevent eutrophication. (2) to recharge the saline water table and form a fresh water baarier to reduce salt water intrusion, and (3) to recycle waste effluent in order to form a reservoir of non-brackish water which will be a potential water supply source for future needs. In all canal areas now being sold there will be no septic tanks from which effluent seepage could potentially cause sutrophication in canals. A centralized sewer system is now being built to conduct wastes to the treatment plant. B. Improved Wastewater Collection Studies: Flat topography and high ground water tables necessitate higher construction costs for conventional gravity sewers and pumping stations. Very recent technology indicates that two alternate systems may be economically competitive, namely vacuum and pressure systems. Two major analyses have been completed of an existing vacuum sewerage collection system installed and operational in a Virginia Project. A detailed study of the equipment, controls, and materials show that they are of a type whose reliability, length of service, and maintenance requirements are well established. Reserach, conferences with manufacturers, and independent calculations and studies of construction procedures confirm the expectation of satisfactory performance of alll elements of the system. The resulting diagrmas, bibliography, and cost studies, establish data for consideration of this system on the Florida site. Studies similar to those for the vacuum system are currently in progress for pressure systems. These studies will be comparatively evaluated against gravity systems in order to determine technical capital-cose, and operating-cost feasibility. C. Wastes from Watercraft Study: A state of the are study was performed to determine the characteristice of sanitary wastes from watercraft, treatment, Page 133 methods available, and required treatment facilities. It was concluded that pollution cased by boats has been only recently recognized as an important wastewater source in marine waters and that the most effective control device available to date is the holding tank. On shore disposal facilities at Marinas are necessary for boat owner pump out service. Solutions: Legal studies are now being instituted to determine methods of regulation of the following: (1) prohibiting discharges of all wastes from watercraft ( requirement for boat owners to install holding tanks will be sought in regulations of the drainage district); (2) wastes from holding tanks must be disposed of through on shore disposal facilities; pumping storage, and disposal facilities will be constructed on shore to delilver waste to the central treatment plant; (3) all other types of wastes such as litter, garage, oil, chemicals, etc. from watercrafts. D. Pollutants in Drainage and Stormwater Runoff Studies: Studies were conducted to determine the characteristics of fertilizers (e.g. phosphates, nitrates) that contribute least to nutrient runoff into surface water bodies. The ultimate goal is to prevent eutrophication. Specific products were recommended which are capable of releasing nutrients at a controlled rate; these were preferred over the water soluble types, which release nutrients at a very rapid rate on water contact. All available data were gathered to determine the extent and degree of pollutant concerntrations found in stormwater runoff from urban areas. Data indicate that runoff contains significant concentration of BOD , suspended solids, nutrients, and dissolved solids. Soil erosion control technology was reviewed with regard to minimizing the effects of sediment runoof during construction when natural vegetative covers are removed and soil is exposed to water impact and scour energy. Alternative methods and/or practices are: (1) minimization of length of exposure time for unprotected grades areas, (2) soil treatment, seeding and mulching, or mulching alone, (3) interceptor dikes, (4) diversion dikes, (5) sediment traps. It was recommended that ll of the methods studies should be applied to Palm Coast and incorporated wherever possible in design aof the drainage system in order to retard water movement as much as possible. Solutions: whereas conventional techniques have aimed at rapid movement and disposal of rainwater from a given site, the present Page 134 methods available, and required treatment facilities. It was concluded that pollution cased by boats has been only recently recognized as an important wastewater source in marine waters and that the most effective control device available to date is the holding tank. On shore disposal facilities at Marinas are necessary for boat owner pump out service. Solutions: Legal studies are now being instituted to determine methods of regulation of the following: (1) prohibiting discharges of all wastes from watercraft ( requirement for boat owners to install holding tanks will be sought in regulations of the drainage district); (2) wastes from holding tanks must be disposed of through on shore disposal facilities; pumping storage, and disposal facilities will be constructed on shore to delilver waste to the central treatment plant; (3) all other types of wastes such as litter, garage, oil, chemicals, etc. from watercrafts. D. Pollutants in Drainage and Stormwater Runoff Studies: Studies were conducted to determine the characteristics of fertilizers (e.g. phosphates, nitrates) that contribute least to nutrient runoff into surface water bodies. The ultimate goal is to prevent eutrophication. Specific products were recommended which are capable of releasing nutrients at a controlled rate; these were preferred over the water soluble types, which release nutrients at a very rapid rate on water contact. All available data were gathered to determine the extent and degree of pollutant concerntrations found in stormwater runoff from urban areas. Data indicate that runoff contains significant concentration of BOD , suspended solids, nutrients, and dissolved solids. Soil erosion control technology was reviewed with regard to minimizing the effects of sediment runoof during construction when natural vegetative covers are removed and soil is exposed to water impact and scour energy. Alternative methods and/or practices are: (1) minimization of length of exposure time for unprotected grades areas, (2) soil treatment, seeding and mulching, or mulching alone, (3) interceptor dikes, (4) diversion dikes, (5) sediment traps. It was recommended that ll of the methods studies should be applied to Palm Coast and incorporated wherever possible in design aof the drainage system in order to retard water movement as much as possible. Solutions: whereas conventional techniques have aimed at rapid movement and disposal of rainwater from a given site, the present Page 135 being utilized in the layout, spacing, and geometry of the dredged canal systems and in establishing minimum homesite elevations. (2) Shallow canal depths of eight feet were selected in order to maximize turbulence and eliminate the possibility of stratification. Therefore, dissolved oxygen levels are maintained throughout the entire depth. F. Operation, and Maintenance of Canals to Perpetuate Water Quality and Aesthetics. Sutdies: Water quality criteria for tidal canals are classified by the State of Florida according to use. They fall into Class III standards for recreation and for propagation and management of fish and wildlife. The criteria governing these waters may be summarized as follows: modern treatment technology required for all discharges into canals: pH range of 6.0-8.5, minimum dissolved oxyten of 4.0 mg/l; coliform bacteria not to exceed 1,000 per 100 ml as a monthly average; no substances toxic to humans, animals or aquatic life; no substances causing deleterious effects or nuisance conditions; turbidity less than 50 Jackson unite above background; and no damage to aquatic life, vegetation, or water use caused by temperature elevation. An inventory of pollutant sources into the canals was made. Since the entire water front area will be certainly sewered , there will be no domestic or industrial waste inputs. Discharges and effluents from boats will be negigible . As discussed earlier under Section D, drainage and storm water runoff is the only important source of potential pollution. However, design of the drainage system has called for maximum water retention on the land, where major fractions of the pollutants will be filtered out and/or absorbed by the soil vegetation complex. Rainfall records have been studied to accurately determine what will be the runoff volumes and their relative distribution throughout the year. Likewise, the amount of fresh water flow into the canals has been calculated. Pollutants loading rates were projected, based upon studies which have investigated storm water quality of urban runoff. Since these published loading factors are developed from areas aimed at rapid movement and disposal of rain water from a given site, they can be substantially lowered for Palm Coast becaue of our drastically different approach in drainage philosophy. Both in terms of volumetric and concentration discharge, the study showed that loading Page 136 rates are favorably low for biochemical oxygen demand, nitrogen, phosphates, and solids. Solution: Regulatory laws will be sought in order to (1) maintain dissolved oxygen levels at pre-determined values by combinations of natural and mechanical means; (2) maintain canal banks; (3) remove water surface debris, trash, oiil, etc.; (4) maintain tributary area drainage system; and (5) maintain all drainage works,. Responsive and corrective action in relation to established water quality criteria will be taken. G. Sampling and Monotiring of Canal Water quality Solutions: Representative sampling points will be established throughout the entire system. Also established will be a periodic sampling schedule as follows, based upon degree of resident occupancy: Occupancy : 1-25, Sampling once every four Months, 26-50 Composite sampling once every two months, 51-75 Composite sampling once every month, 76-100 Continuous sampling, recorded. Installation will be made of a permanent recording, remove-sensing, water-quality monitoring system at 75 % occupancy. ************************************************************************************ Credentials of Richard Vaughn: Richard Dugger Vaughan, Rear Admiral, U. S. Public Health Service (Ret.), 83, died peacefully at home in Ormond Beach, FL, on May 28, 2010. Services will be held in Ormond Beach, Wednesday, June 2…2:00 PM…St. James Episcopal Church, 44 S. Halifax Avenue. Viewing will be Tuesday, June 1…5:00 to 7:00 PM…Lohman Funeral Home, 733 Granada Avenue. Burial will take place at Arlington National Cemetery. Born in Evanston, Illinois to Beatrice and Merlin Vaughan, he spent his early years in Miami, FL…later graduating from Montgomery Blair High School in Silver Spring, Md. He served in the U.S. Army during World War II. In 1951, holding a Bachelor of Civil Engineering degree from Georgia Tech, Dick began a distinguished career in Environmental Engineering with the Public Health Service, rising to the rank of Assistant Surgeon General before retiring in 1971. He held Master of Civil Engineering and Master of Public Health degrees from the University of Michigan, and was a Diplomate of the American Academy of Environmental Engineering. Retirement brought him to the Halifax area as an executive with ITT Palm Coast. Dick and his wife, the former Laura M. Henderson of Sarasota, FL, became active in community affairs, with Dick serving as President of Civic Music and the Daytona Playhouse and as a member of Seaside Music Theater's Advisory Board. He enjoyed being in musicals. Civic duties included the Board of Visitors for Embry-Riddle University and chairing the City of Ormond Beach Environmental Advisory Board. He served as Commodore of the Halifax River Yacht Club in 1999, later becoming Chairman of the Building Committee. He was a member of the Museum of Arts and Sciences and the Art League. He is survived by his wife Laura; son Robert, his wife Debbie and son Noah; daughter Cynthia Simmons, her husband Bruce, and children Jennifer, Steven, and Christine; daughter Kathryn Cejner, her husband Steve and children Blake and Lauren; sister Barbara Long, her son Curt and his wife of Pensacola, FL: beloved dog, Luvy; his adopted Simmons and Koch families; and the children of Children's Musical Theatre Workshop. In lieu of flowers, donations may be made to Special Olympics or to Children's Musical Theatre Workshop of Ormond Beach. Friends may send condolences http://www.LohmanFuneralHomes .com. Arrangements are under the careful supervision of Lohman Funeral Home Ormond.
We know for decades all last Century that the Canal System was monitored regularly; is this still being done for the Canal System this Century?
Additionally, Dr. Mery Gloria Gutteriez-Gable just called me and she said she had sent off yet another Packet to the Levitt Palm Coast Collection at ‘ The Smithsonian ‘. I, myself will also be sending yet another huge packet to ‘ The Smithsonian ‘ also.
Palm Coast Project chosen because….
Why Captain Young Chose Palm Coast
When Retired Merchant Marine Captain Irving H. Young decided to make his home in Florida after 34 years at sea, he went about it in the same businesslike, scientific manner with which he skippered a ship.
” I covered 6,000 miles in the state of Florida over a four month period, investigating and making comparisons at 72 different homes and locations, ” Young said.
He said he and his wife, Shari, looked at old houses, new houses, established communities, young communities, ” After traveling all over the World, I knew what I wanted.”
He decided that the best area of the state ( ” Actually it’s the best area in the United States: ) lies on the Atlantic Coast about 50 miles from the north to south and from the beach to 10 miles inland, centered by the presently developed area of Palm Coast. All of Palm Coast lies within the area he described.
” This is a healthy place to live,” he said. ” We’ll have no air pollution in this area because the wind will always blow from the ocean onto the land. And we will have no severe temperatures; it is never really too hot nor too cold. The ocean takes care of that.”
Besides, he said he learned during his inspection trip around the state that many years ago John D. Rockefeller Sr. conducted a similar study before deciding to spend his retirement years at Ormond Beach, 25 miles to the south of Palm Coast.
In addition to the atmospheric conditions, which he said are very important to a sailor, he picked Palm Coast for his home for these reasons.
: We have here a growing, developing community, a reasonable tax base, an acceptable amount of services, close to the amenities which make living worthwhile.”
Mrs. Young agreed wholeheartedly with his evaluation of the area in general and Palm Coast in particular. She also cited the fact that the Palm Coast community contains persons of all ages, not just retirees, as one of the reasons the Youngs bought their home in Palm Coast. ‘We didn’t want to be in a retirement colony, ” Young said.
Captain Young has become active in civic affairs since he moved to Palm Coast. He said, ” This community offers a challenge to those who want it. On the other hand, it offers peace and tranquility to those who wish it. You have all the advantages of urban living and the quality of suburban living.”.
The Palm Coaster, Volume 1, Number 2, Summer 1978