NOAA Downgrades 2009 Hurricane Forecast
Meteorologist: A scientist who can accurately predict 15 of the next 6 hurricanes.
Palm Coast, FL – August 26, 2009 – Northeast Florida, which includes Palm Coast and Flagler County, does not have a history of intense hurricanes [Northeast Florida Not Among Most Vulnerable to Hurricane Strike]. Nonetheless, residents listen up when NOAA talks. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) operates the National Weather Service’s National Hurricane Center which recently lowered their 2009 hurricane outlook.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, now predicts a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 40 percent probability of a below-normal season, and a 10 percent probability of an above-normal season. Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of seven to 11 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes, including one to two major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5). Hurricane Bill reached then lost major hurricane status while still at sea before brushing the New England coastline.
The main change from the May outlook is an increased probability of a below-normal season, and an expectation of fewer named storms and hurricanes. The May outlook called for nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes. During an average season, there are 11 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph, of which six become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater and two of those become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.
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The Palm Coaster 1982
From: The Palm Coaster, Volume 11, Number 1, Winter/Spring 1982 p. 13.
Hurricane in Palm Coast? Not Likely
Like reports of Mark Twains’ death, reports of Florida hurricanes too have been greatly exaggerated.
Over the years people have become accustomed to thinking of hurricanes as the exclusive property of Florida. One reason might be that the National Hurricane Center is headquartered in Miami. Almost every hurricane news report originates in Miami, regardless of where the storm is located, be it 50 miles or 2,000 miles from Flroida.
What is a hurricane? it’s a large tropical cyclone with winds of at least 74 miles per hour, generally accompanied by heavy rains and high tides. The great spiral clouds of an average hurricane cover an area several hundred miles in diameter, although the area hit by the highest winds- those over 74 miles per hour-may only be 30 to 100 miles in diameter.
Hurricanes form over warm , tropical ocean areas and move to higher lattitudes like great spinning tops. Their movement is quite erratic. They can suddenly change directions, make loops, slow up or stop-and later move at 10 to 20 miles per hour. This forward speed of the hurricane system increases the fury of the circular winds flowing around the hurricane’s eye, or center.
The north American hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with most storms occuring in August, September and October.
The North Florida area isn’t immune to direct hits by hurricanes-no part of the United States’ gulf coast or eastern coastline is. But weather bureau records show that chances of a hurricane striking the Palm Coast region are considerably less than in most other coastal areas of the state and nation. Meteorologist Fred Crosby of the National Weather Service says,"the configuratioin of the coastline and the region’s latitude help explain the area’s relatively hurricane free record, which is based on the tracks of previous storms."
"During the early stages of a tropocal storm," says Crosby, ‘The movement is generally from the east to the west. The direction gradually changes…this movement pattern would reduce the probabiltiy of one of them directly hitting the northeast Florida coast."
Looking at the past 100 years, Flagler and Volusia counties hold an envious distinction neither county ever received a direct hit from a full hurricane moving directly in from the ocean.
Although a total of 19 hurricane’s occuring during the 100-year period have posed serious threats and five have actually passed over the area, in each case those storms had already been over land for a number of hours and were greatly weakened in force and without the beach damage caused by ocean storms.
The last hurricane to afffect Palm Coast was Hurricane David, which brushed the area in early September, 1979. David’s highest wind gust recorded in Palm Coast was 59 miles per hour, and though it did drop 4.16 inches of rain over a 48 -hour period, no flood-related water damage occurred. One of the main reasons damage did not occur is because Palm Coast has been designed to withstand, what is termed, "the 100-year flood." That, says Richard Vaughan, director of environmental affairs for ITT Community Development Corporation, means a flood that statistically could occur once in a hundred years could hit Palm Coast and no flood water would enter the houses.
Here is a probablity table based on National Weather Service data showing the chances of hurricane making landfall at varioius Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Seaboard areas:
Probability of Tropical Cyclone Making Direct Landfall during any given year:
Coastline areas:
Corpus Christi, Texas 1 : 8
Galveston, Texas 1 : 5
New Orleans, Louisiana 1 : 5
Pensacola, Florida 1 : 5
Apalachiocola, Florida 1 : 6
Tampa- St. Petersburg, Florida 1 : 10
Miami, Florida 1 : 6
Palm Coast, Florida 1 : 14
High and Low Temperatures in Palm Coast during December and January.
( As recorded by the Palm Coast Weather Bureau, Office of Environmental Affairs)
Date, High, Low
Dec.
1 84, 61
2 64 59
3 65 43
4 73 38
5 73 41
6 65 36
7 70 46
8 76 38
9 65 37
10 51 32
11 53 26
12 70 28
13 67 34
14 79 47
15 75 62
16 62 39
17 65 31
18 67 50
19 73 26
20 60 34
21 66 38
22 74 40
23 83 64
24 83 57
25 80 59
26 74 56
27 74 60
28 69 61
29 79 61
30 64 58
31 82 62
January
1 69 57
2 71 57
3 80 57
4 77 69
5 60 41
6 75 41
7 83 56
8 69 58
9 65 48
10 59 26
11 42 26
12 49 20
13 70 47
14 70 51
15 53 27
16 69 30
17 55 38
18 72 40
19 77 43
20 79 46
21 80 50
22 76 50
23 81 56
24 70 40
25 62 33
26 58 43
27 61 35
28 60 40
27 61 35
28 60 40
29 71 40
30 75 50
31 85 53