National Home Prices Are Expected to Rise by 6.7 Percent from March 2014 to March 2015

Home prices, including distressed sales, increased 11.1 percent in March 2014 compared to March 2013 according to CoreLogic’s March Home Price Index Report released today.

Palm Coast, FL – May 6, 2014 – CoreLogic today released its March 2014 Home Price Index Report, which indicates home prices rising by 11.1 percent year over year in March. The report forecasts a 6.7% increase in home prices from March 2014 to March 2015.

Of course, CoreLogic’s figures are national. Locally, the picture is somewhat different. The median selling price for single-family Flagler homes sold through the multiple listing service (MLS) during March was $146,000, an 8.2% increase year-over-year.

“March data on new and existing home sales was weaker than expected and is a cause for concern as we enter the spring buying season. Interest rate-disenfranchised potential sellers are adding to the existing shadow inventory, while buyers who can’t find what they want to buy are on the sidelines creating a new kind of ‘shadow demand.’ This supply and demand imbalance continues to drive home prices higher, even though transaction volumes are lower than expected,” says Dr. Mark Fleming, CoreLogic’s chief economist.

Transaction volume is lower locally as well with 45 fewer homes sold through April this year compared to 2013. Increased prices have more than offset the transaction deficit however. Aggregate sales are up by 4.5% through April.

CoreLogic projects a 0.8% increase in home prices from March to April for sales including distressed sales. They forecast only 0.6% increase for sales excluding distressed sales. Thus, prices for distressed sales are rising faster than those of non-distresses sales.

GoToby.com thinks that distressed sales are becoming harder to find at the same time that buyers are still in a bargain hunting frame of mind. The combination will put upward pressure on prices within that segment.

Despite gains in February, home prices nationwide remain 16.0% below their peak, which was set in April 2006. Flagler’s March prices remain 43.8% below the local peak. At the state level, Florida was 36.3% below its peak.

April results are still incomplete, but at posting time, Flagler’s median selling price in April stands at $157,900, 10.6% above a year ago and 39.3% below peak.