Hurricanes - How Much Should We Worry

According to NOAA, a Category 5 hurricane will come within 87 miles of Palm Coast every 220 years on average. I’m 66 years old. How old are you? Do the math.

Palm Coast, FL – May 28, 2010 – NOAA has just issued its prediction of the 2010 hurricane season. As quoted on Fox News.com, we can expect "up to 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season." NOAA’s report actually says that there is a "70% probability of having between 14 and 23 named storms," so Fox could just as easily have reported, "We can expect as few as 14 named storms….." According to NOAA, a Category 5 hurricane will come within 87 miles of Palm Coast every 220 years on average. I’m 66 years old. Do the math.

I define a meteorologist as someone who accurately predicts 15 out of the next 6 hurricanes. The same can be said about economists’ recession forecasts. Do they do it because they feel that we won’t listen unless the story is sensationalized? Is it because sensationalism sells newspapers?

Now I’m no stranger to hurricanes. I lived in Charleston, SC in 1989 when Category 5 hurricane Hugo ripped through. The eye of the storm passed directly over my location. It was a horrific experience, one for which no level of preparedness less than evacuation could have mitigated. I didn’t heed the evacuation warnings. I will next time, but being caught in an evacuation isn’t a whole lot better. I still remember a later evacuation where a one-term S.C. Governor surveying the scene from a helicopter received hundreds of one-finger salutes from motorists stranded on Interstate 26 below.

Be prepared but don’t obsess. The chance of a hurricane striking Palm Coast is less than twice that of one striking NYC. And recently adopted Florida building codes are designed to minimize storm damage. A hurricane could still hit but fires, not hurricanes, represent our greatest danger.

Everyone should have a Disaster Preparedness Plan. You should know the evacuation routes. Visit the Flagler County Emergency Operations Center or go to their website [http//www.FlaglerEmergency.com]. And be sure to read the Flagler County/Palm Coast Disaster Preparedness Guide found there.