Former National Hurricane Director Questions Recent Tropical Storm Counts

Says new methods have led to over-reporting of tropical storm activity. Higher property insurance premiums likely result.

January 2, 2008 – Palm Coast, FL – Neil Frank was director of the National Hurricane Center between 1974 and 1987. Frank, currently chief meteorologist for KHOU-TV in Houston, takes issue with the way the center classifies tropical storms. According to a story today in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Frank believes that six of the 15 systems in the 2007 storm season may have been too weak to deserve tropical storm status. Storm data is used by the insurance industry to set rates. So if Frank is right, we are probably paying too much for property insurance.

Prior to the mid 90s, the National Hurricane Center relied on measured barometric pressure to classify the strength of storms. They now place more emphasis on satellite imagery to calculate wind speed which, according to Frank, is less reliable.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center dispute Frank’s assertions, saying that they are finding more storms today than before because they have better tools available including geostationary and polar orbiting satellites. Chris Landsea, chief operations officer says, “I would agree with him (Frank) that we’re naming more now than we did then. But I would also argue we’re naming them correctly. We just have more tools to do it correctly.”

The dispute between the hurricane center and Frank is mostly academic, focused on measurement methodology. The important fact is that both sides agree that the number of storms is not necessarily increasing. The method used to count them has changed. Landsea admits that the busy 2005 season was probably equaled by the 1933 season where 19 systems made landfall.

Meanwhile, the insurance industry is content to use the new higher numbers to calculate risk. And higher risk estimates translate into higher property insurance premiums.