Flagler, Volusia, and St. Johns counties continue to grow. Growth rates dipped slightly for Flagler and Volusia. St. Johns growth is steady. All three surpass Florida’s growth rate.
PALM COAST, FL – March 22, 2018 – The U. S. Census Bureau today released its County and Metro/Micro Area Population Estimates showing estimated yearly population as of July 1, 2017. In other words, these newly released figures are population estimates as of eight months ago.
The Deltona – Daytona Beach – Ormond Beach Metro Area (which includes all of Flagler and Volusia counties) grew 1.94% from 636,843 to 649,202 during the period from July 1, 2016 to July 1, 2017. The Villages, last year’s fastest growing Metro Area at 4.3% dropped to 22nd place with a 2.5% growth.
Florida grew 1.59% during the same period, somewhat less than the 1.91% growth the previous year. Our state’s estimated population as of July '17 was 20,984,400. That level likely exceeds 21M by now.
Flagler, Volusia, and St. Johns counties each surpassed Florida’s 1.59% growth. Flagler’s population grew 2.51%, down slightly from the previous year’s 2.93%. Volusia also dropped; from 2.23% to 1.82%. St. Johns remained steady with 3.74% and 3.73% respectively.
Flagler County gained an estimated 2,705 residents, generating the need for approximately 1,200 to 1,300 new residential units (homes, condos, or apartments). During the July '16 to July '17 period, only 900 single-family building permits were issues. None were issued for condos or apartments. This imbalance has caused home prices and rents to rise faster than the CPI or wage growth.
Fortunately, builders have picked up the pace and plans for multi-family and other alternative housing are in the planning pipeline. However, I think local population growth is on the increase again. I would not be surprised to see the July '17 to July '18 population increase by more than 3,500 new residents.
Texas took the limelight with eight of the 15 fastest growing counties. The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area’s 146,000-population increase last year was the most of any metro area and Maricopa County, Ariz., saw a population increase of nearly 74,000 — the most of any county last year — according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s July 1, 2017, population estimates released today. The statistics provide population estimates and components of change for the nation’s 382 metropolitan statistical areas, 551 micropolitan statistical areas and 3,142 counties.
“Historically, the Dallas metro area attracts large numbers from both international and domestic migration. Many of the other largest metro areas in the country rely mostly on international migration and natural increase for growth,” said Molly Cromwell, a demographer at the Census Bureau.
Among the nation’s counties, the top 10 with the largest numeric growth are all located in the South and the West. The 10 largest counties in the country all maintained their rank compared to last year.
From July 1, 2016, to July 1, 2017, six of the top 10 largest-gaining counties were in Texas — Bexar, Collin, Dallas, Denton, Harris, and Tarrant. The remaining four counties on the list were Maricopa County, Ariz.; Clark County, Nev.; Riverside County, Calif.; and King County, Wash. Most of the nation’s 3,142 counties grew, with 57 percent gaining in the last year.
Gaining and losing population
- Between 2016 and 2017, 1,790 counties (57.0 percent) gained population and 1,342 counties (42.7 percent) lost population. This compared to 2015-2016, when 1,655 counties (52.7 percent) gained population and 1,480 counties (47.1 percent) lost population.
- Among counties with a population of 10,000 or more in 2016 and 2017, Falls Church City, Va. (a county equivalent), was the fastest-growing county with a 5.2 percent increase, adding 715 people. The rapid growth was mostly due to an increase in net domestic migration, with 492 more people moving in than out of the area between 2016 and 2017.
- The primary driver behind the growth of the 10 fastest-growing counties, 2016-2017, was net domestic migration.
Natural increase and decrease
- Between 2016 and 2017, 1,907 counties (60.7 percent) experienced natural increase, meaning there were more births than deaths. This compares to 2015-2016, when 1,942 counties (61.8 percent) experienced natural increase.
- Also between 2016 and 2017, 1,200 counties (38.2 percent) experienced natural decrease, meaning more people died in the county than were born. This compares to 2015-2016 when 1,164 counties (37.0 percent) experienced natural decrease.
- Between 2016 and 2017, the number of counties that showed a positive net migration was 1,661 (52.9 percent), meaning more people moved into the county than moved out, and 1,470 (46.8 percent) counties showed negative net migration, meaning more people moved out of the county than moved into the county.
- Between 2015 and 2016, 1,469 counties (46.8 percent) showed positive net migration, and 1,660 counties (52.8 percent) showed negative net migration.
- Many of the top 10 metro areas with the largest numeric increases in 2015-2016 were also in the top 10 in 2016-2017, with the following notable exceptions: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md.-W.Va., climbed to 5th in 2017 from 11th in 2016, and Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif., jumped to 7th in 2017 from 13th in 2016.
- In 2017, the Baltimore metro area was now the 20th most populous metro area, up from 21st place in 2016.
- Net domestic migration is the driving factor behind all of the top 10 fastest-growing metro areas that rose in rank — St. George, Utah; Coeur d’Alene, Idaho; Greely, Colo.; Lakeland, Fla.; and Boise, Idaho.
- Out of 382 metro areas, 87 (22.8 percent) saw population decreases between 2016 and 2017.
- The metro areas that dropped in rank within the top 10 fastest-growing metro areas, between 2016 and 2017, did so because of decreases in net domestic migration. Those areas are Bend-Redmond, Ore.; Provo-Orem, Utah; The Villages, Fla.; Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.; and Austin-Round Rock, Texas.
- The St. Louis, Mo.-Ill. metro area dropped out of the top 20 most populous metro areas and swapped places with Baltimore to its new 2017 standing of the 21st most populous area in the nation. In 1960, St Louis was the 9th largest metro area.
- A decrease in net domestic migration, meaning less of a gain from movement within the United States, was the primary factor in the Tampa metro area’s drop in rank from 7th in 2016 to 10th in 2017.
- The metro area with the largest percentage decrease in population last year was Casper, Wyo., down by 1.7 percent.
Toby Tobin: REALTOR®, SRES®
I am a REALTOR® licensed by the State of Florida and Seniors Real Estate Specialist, SRES®, with Grand Living Realty, where 'The GoToby Team' helps fellow aged 50+ buyers and sellers achieve improved outcomes in real estate transactions by integrating real estate decisions with other age-related decisions/plans through my broad network of respected service providers; financial, wills, trusts, probate, insurance, healthcare, home services, recreation, lifestyle, estate planning, and adult living facilities.
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