Flagler County, FL Will Need Between 11,000 and 25,000 More Residential Units in 2010 – 2020 Decade

University of Florida study: Flagler County is projected to Lead Florida Population Growth for the next Three Decades

Palm Coast, FL – June 14, 2011 – According to a just released University of Florida report titled "Florida population soars in century’s first decade, but rate is slowing," Flagler will likely be the fasted growing county in the state for the next three decades. Sumter County is projected to run a close second.
Flagler and Sumter counties experienced the fastest growth in the state during the previous decade. In 2000, Flagler County’s population was 49,832. According to 2010 Census data, that number had grown to 95,696. Sumter County’s population in 2000 was 53,345 and had risen to 93,420 by 2010. Stan Smith, director of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at UF’s Warrington College of Business Administration, attributed Flagler’s growth to the popularity of the area’s Palm Coast development and Sumter’s growth to the establishment of The Villages, a popular and growing retirement community.
The study projects population growth on three paths; low, medium, and high. Flagler’s projected growth rate is forecast to lead all other Florida counties on all three paths. The 2010 national census pegged Flagler County’s population at 96,696. On the medium path, Flagler County population is projected to hit 136,900 by 2020, 178,600 by 2030, and 215,400 by 2040, a growth of 125.09%. Even on the low growth path, Flagler’s population is set to grow 47.24% by 2040. On the high path, Flagler’s population will grow 212.87%.
Effect on housing and new construction
What does this mean to Flagler County’s real estate market and construction industry? On the medium growth path, Flagler will add 40,204 residents between 2010 and 2020. That would be 85.79% as many people as were added in the previous record-growth decade. The low growth path would add 25,604 during the decade and the high growth path 58,704.
Thousands of additional dwelling units will be needed. The Flagler County School District estimates density of 2.33 residents per dwelling unit. Using that figure, Flagler County will need 10,989 additional dwelling units by 2020 even on the lowest growth path.

Dwelling Units Needed for Population Growth
Flagler County, FL


Low Growth

Medium Growth

High Growth

2010 – 2020




2020 – 2030




2030 – 2040








The question is not "if the Flagler County housing market will return?" it’s "when will we notice it?" GoToby.com believes the recent reduction in the inventory of homes listed "For Sale" in MLS, the increase in pending sales, and the reduction in "Days on Market" indicate it will be sooner than later.  
Both Flagler and St. Johns counties are projected to grow faster than Volusia County over the next 30 years; not only in percentage terms but also in absolute terms. Flagler’s perpetual linkage to Volusia County will naturally decline as Flagler, led by Palm Coast, becomes more independantly significant. GoToby.com believes Flagler’s ties to St Johns County will grow stronger as Volusia’s influence fades.

Three-decade Population Growth Rate by County
(Medium Growth Path)







St Johns






Sixty-five of Florida’s 67 counties gained population during this past decade. Four counties grew by more than 50 percent, and 20 grew by more than 20 percent. The largest numerical increases over the past decade occurred in Orange County (up 249,612 to 1,145,956), Miami-Dade County (up 242,656 to 2,496,435) and Hillsborough County (up 230,278 to 1,229,226). Smith attributed this increase to those counties’ long history of growth and that each is home to a major metropolitan city.

The study projects Florida’s population growth over the next three decades to be 7.28 million, between a low estimate of 4.42 million and a high estimate of 10.71 million.

4 replies
  1. George Meegan
    George Meegan says:

    Liberal College Professors

    We all know the many College Professors that seem to be in a world of their own. They paint a pie in the sky for most everything they do. They are by their own makings teachers not doers.
    They are isolated as are politicians from the real world by the money they earn doing non productive tasks. Research on statistics is a static study reflective of past results, and projecting them foward. That’s fine if the future is a mirror of the past, but these days it is not. Dynamic occurances like storms of late distroying towns,are now probable if we look at the recent past where Flagler county has lost population and has many homes empty. Thousands have gone back north as they found no work here. Sumptner county with the Villages, is much different than Flagler. It has low end trailers to high end houses and condos. It has free Golf, and many social programs in it’s massive network of communties designed for retired seniors. There are better politicians and less control by the business community. There is nothing like an organized social life for seniors, they simply will not come to Flagler over Sumptner. Look for Flagler to fall way behind the Villages in the future, as it has already.

    Dynamic v statatic is just reality v dreams.

  2. Jason DeLorenzo
    Jason DeLorenzo says:

    Encouraging news

    From a jobs outlook this is great news. A NAHB study recently concluded that "every new single-family home built in America creates three new jobs and generates $90,000 in federal, state and local tax revenue, $145,000 in wage income and $86,000 in net business income. The income earned from construction activity is spent and recycled in the local economy, and the new homes that are built become occupied by residents who pay taxes and buy locally produced goods and services. Those tax revenues help pay for a wide range of government services, including local school teachers, police departments and road repairs."

    Using that data and even the low estimate released by UF we can expect to create the full time equivalent of 27,473 primary construction jobs and 5,495 secondary jobs over the next 10 years. Wage and business income in the community will be staggering at just over $1.5 billion and $945 million respectively.

  3. Bill Hasson
    Bill Hasson says:

    UF study:Fla. growth to continue lagging

    As stated in article Florida was a leader in population gains over the past decade the study released on Monday also prediccted that the state’s growth rate will steadily decline through 2040.

  4. Carl
    Carl says:

    Population growth

    If we check with relo companies, moving companies, and as such u-haul rentals, we would probably be able to offset the growth UF says is happening with the amount of people moving out of the state.

    Sales listings numbers dropping on the MLS is also somewhat fictitious as foreclosures sit in bank holdings waiting for the market to improve before they start dumping those back on the market.

    Take a drive through any area of Palm Coast, and any area that has homes will also have about every third home vacant and/or vandalized.

    We have jobs available but the ones who need work have a past because it is always easier to be a thug.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply