Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville Near Top of ‘Likely to Move’ List

ATTOM Data Solutions’ Q2 2018 Pre-Mover Housing Index finds that Chicago, Washington, D.C., Orlando, Tampa-St. Petersburg and Atlanta posted the highest pre-mover index in the second quarter of 2018.

IRVINE, Calif. – Aug. 21, 2018 – ATTOM Data Solutions' Q2 2018 Pre-Mover Housing Index finds that Chicago, Washington, D.C., Orlando, Tampa-St. Petersburg and Atlanta posted the highest pre-mover index in the second quarter of 2018 in the larger-metro category. ATTOM says a high score is "predictive of a high percentage of homeowners moving in the third quarter."

ATTOM's quarterly report looks at 36 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) with at least 500,000 single-family homes and condos using data collected from purchase loan applications on residential real estate transactions.

The Pre-Mover Housing Index is based on the ratio of homes with a "pre-mover" indicator compared to total single-family homes and condos in a given geography, indexed off the national average. An index above 100 is above the national average and indicates an above-average ratio of homes that will likely be sold in the next 90 days in a given market.

Among a broader set of 131 metro areas with at least 100,000 single family homes and condos, those posting the highest pre-mover index in Q2 2018 were Wilmington, N.C. (206); Colorado Springs, Colo. (178); and Manchester-Nashua, N.H. (172); followed by Chicago (168) and Washington, D.C. (166).

"A higher pre-mover index bodes well for local real estate agents, home improvement stores, moving companies and others that benefit from the halo effect of a home sale," said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions.

"Meanwhile markets with a low pre-mover index likely have a scarcity of inventory available to buy or relatively weak demand from prospective buyers – or some combination of both – which is not optimal for businesses that rely on the home sale halo effect," Blomquist adds.

ATTOM has a pre-mover heat map on its website that displays the likelihood of home sales by city.

States with the highest pre-mover index in the second quarter of 2018 – predictive of a high percentage of homeowners moving in the third quarter – were North Dakota (275), Illinois (193), Nevada (164), Virginia (163), and Colorado (147). Other states with a pre-mover index among the 10 highest in Q2 2018 were New Jersey (133), Florida (133), Delaware (130), Maryland (127), and Utah (124).

Florida metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) ranked by pre-mover index ranking

• Orlando-Kissimmee: 136
• Jacksonville: 136
• Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater: 133
• Lakeland-Winter Haven: 126
• Ocala: 109
• Port St. Lucie: 100
• Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville: 95
• Cape Coral-Fort Myers: 91
• Deltona-Dayton Beach-Ormond Beach (consisting of all of Volusia and FLAGLER Counties): 90
• Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice: 87
• Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach: 85
• Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent: 65
• Fort Walton Beach-Crestview-Destin: 58
• Naples-Marco Island: 53

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