Quick Take: Jobless Claims, Mortgage Rates, and International Trade

The economic news out today shows a glimmer of hope that we might now be approaching a bottom of this recession.

• This week’s figures was down slightly (25,000) from last week at 654,000
• Continuing claims rose 95,000 to 5.84 million a record, suggesting that the unemployed are having troubles finding new work.

• The 30-year fixed rate mortgage edged up 9 basis points to 4.87% this week.
• The spread between the 30-year FRM and the 10-year Treasury fell to 2.02, its lowest average since February of 2008, but nearly 50 basis points above its pre-financial crisis average.

• The trade gap fell sharply to $26 billion in February from $36 billion a month earlier.
• A 1.6% increase in exports, led by consumer goods and autos, combined with a 5.1% decrease in imports of consumer goods, industrial supplies, and capital goods led to the surprise improvement.

• The economic news out today shows a glimmer of hope that we might now be approaching a bottom of this recession. However, it is far from suggesting that we are out of the woods. After digging such a deep unemployment trench, it will take much more time to fill it in this void.
• The slack economic numbers will help to depress long-term mortgage rates. This pattern will give the market more time to draw fence sitters in to take advantage of strong affordability conditions.
• Once the large inventories are whittled away, then construction can ramp up again, breathing new life into the economy. The quicker the inventory issue is addressed, the faster the economy will recover.
• Because of much reduced international trade deficit, the GDP forecast is upwardly revised for the first quarter.

• NAR’s monthly official forecast as of April 1
• GDP Q1: -4.2%
• GDP Q2: – 1.8%
• Unemployment rate by the end of 2009: 10.0%
• Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by the end of 2009: 5.2%