Newsletter: Palm Coast and Flagler Distressed Home Sales Declining
Median home selling price is up 13.3%, but the increase is largely due to the decline in the percentage of sales comprised of distressed properties.
Palm Coast, FL – July 13, 2014 – The Palm Coast and Flagler County looks robust. The median selling price of single-family Flagler homes through MLS in June rose 13.3% to $162,500 from $144,500 one year ago. But the increase is largely due to a decline in the percentage of sales comprised of distressed properties. The number of homes selling remains essentially unchanged from a year ago. It appears that the market is getting healthier rather than stronger.
June 2013 | June 2014 | % Change | 1/2 2013 | 1/2 2014 | % Change | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All Homes | 178 | 182 | 2.2% | 1049 | 1027 | -2.1% |
Median Price | $144,500 | $163,700 | 13.3% | $137,000 | $153,000 | 11.7% |
$/SF | $89.22 | $98.38 | 10.3% | $86.16 | $95.52 | 10.9% |
Total Sales | $34,117,592 | $35,870,053 | 5.1% | $188,229,002 | $201,356,040 | 7.0% |
Cash Sales | 85 | 79 | -7.1% | 586 | 483 | -17.6% |
Median Price | $136,000 | $162,500 | 19.5% | $126,300 | $144,900 | 14.7% |
$/SF | $85.37 | $93.24 | 9.2% | $83.02 | $92.28 | 11.2% |
Total Sales | $16,055,503 | $14,553,014 | -9.4% | $99,578,874 | $92,738,136 | -6.9% |
Short Sales | 24 | 7 | -70.8% | 186 | 63 | -66.1% |
Median Price | $125,425 | $125,000 | -0.3% | $114,750 | $127,000 | 10.7% |
$/SF | $70.37 | $78.28 | 11.2% | $65.28 | $72.93 | 11.7% |
Total Sales | $3,889,550 | $1,179,000 | -69.7% | $25,374,610 | $9,675,300 | -61.9% |
REO Sales | 40 | 34 | -15.0% | 224 | 269 | 20.1% |
Median Price | $111,550 | $122,500 | 9.8% | $111,750 | $125,000 | 11.9% |
$/SF | $71.18 | $70,95 | -0.3% | $66.08 | $74.14 | 12.2% |
Total Sales | $5,603,617 | $4,324,275 | -22.8% | $28,306,731 | $37,604,057 | 32.8% |
Non-Distressed Sales | 114 | 141 | 23.7% | 638 | 694 | 8.8% |
Median Price | $170,900 | $170,000 | -0.5% | $160,000 | $170,000 | 6.3% |
$/SF | $99.52 | $105,99 | 6.5% | $99.25 | $105,74 | 6.5% |
Total Sales | $24,624,425 | $30,366,778 | 23.3% | $134,107,661 | $153,656,683 | 14.6% |
Before the Great Recession, distressed sales represented an insignificant portion of the housing market. Locally, that percentage grew to exceed 50% of all home sales during the depth of the housing slump. The trend of decreasing distressed sales continues. June numbers are more favorable than the 2014 first half numbers. The same can be said about June 2013 vs. the first half of that year.
Year | % Distressed |
---|---|
2008 | 36.8% |
2009 | 54.6% |
2010 | 53.6% |
2011 | 52.8% |
2012 | 48.6% |
2013 | 35.9% |
1/2 2014 | 32.3% |
June 2014 | 22.5% |
Through the Great Recession, distressed properties could be found in all segments of the market. The fact that some areas were affected more than others is apparent when comparing different communities within the City and County.
But the rate of distressed sales likely has little to do with the desirability of any particular community, but more to do with the timing of construction within each community. There were 4,974 distressed homes sold during the period including 2008 through the first half of 2014 at a median selling price of $119,000.
66.4% of those distressed homes were built during the seven years including 2001 through 2007. That’s when the real estate bubble combined irrational prices and unsustainable demand with slack lending standards. Consequently, distressed sales were more prevalent in those communities that experienced the most new construction at that time. Conditions were ripe for buyers to get in over their head.
Upscale communities fared better than their more modest counterparts. Presumably, their owners had more equity in their homes and/or they had more financial reserves to carry them through the slump. The differences can be seen clearly in the following table which shows currently listed inventory and the percentage of distressed listings (MLS).
Listing | % Distressed | Absorptioni Rate* | |
---|---|---|---|
All Flagler Homes | 986 | 13.5% | 5.8 |
Belle Terre | 28 | 32.1% | 5.3 |
Cypress Knolls | 34 | 14.7% | 5.4 |
Indian Trails | 82 | 18.3% | 3.7 |
Lehigh Woods | 84 | 22.6% | 4.7 |
Matanzas Woods | 23 | 26.1% | 3.8 |
Palm Harbor | 28 | 35.7% | 5.0 |
Pine Grove | 58 | 27.6% | 5.6 |
Pine Lakes | 102 | 11.8% | 5.1 |
Quail Hollow | 24 | 8.3% | 4.6 |
Seminole Woods | 31 | 19.4% | 3.3 |
Flagler Beach | 81 | 3.7% | 12.3 |
Palm Coast Plantation | 13 | 7.7% | 11.1 |
Grand Haven | 55 | 9.1% | 8.3 |
Hammock Dunes DRI** | 96 | 1.0% | 20.6 |
* Absorption rate indicates how many sales months of inventory at current prices.
** Hammock Dunes DRI includes Hammock Dunes, Hammock Beach, Ocean Hammock, Harbor Village Marina and Island Estates.
The absorption rates for Short Sales, REO and Non-Distressed are 4.1, 2.0 and 7.4 respectively.
Flagler's condominium market can be distinguished as two segments; the Hammock Dunes DRI and All Others. The differences are apparent in the following chart.
1/2 2014 | Hammock Dunes DRI | All Other |
---|---|---|
Units Sold | 37 | 63 |
Median Price | $435,000 | $132,500 |
Ave $SF | $228.18 | $109.36 |
Total Sales | $16,948,950 | $16,246,472 |
Units Listed 4 sale | 126 | 135 |
Absorptioin Rate | 20.4 | 7.5 |
am I using the numbers correctly ?
The numbers { medium price 6/14 X sq. footage price same time period )
seem to indicate that my home which is in EXCELLENT condition…..and well above average….would sell for $196,000………….does not make sense……..
Reply to Newt
Please clarify your question.