New-Home Production Rises 9.3 Percent in November

Builder Confidence Rises for the Third Consecutive Month

Palm Coast, FL – December 20, 2011 – Production of new single-family homes and apartments rose 9.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000 units in November, according to figures released by the U.S. Commerce Department today. This marks the fastest pace of housing starts since October of 2008.

“While we still have a long way to go back to normal, the latest numbers are one more indication that housing is slowly turning the corner,” said Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Reno, Nev. “In scattered markets across the country, buyers who have long sat on the sidelines are starting to take advantage of today’s very attractive prices and interest rates, while others are making the move to a new apartment. This nascent trend would be stronger if not for the very restrictive lending environment that continues for both building and buying new homes.”

“Along with recent gains that have been registered in builder confidence and other economic measures, the improvement in new-home production and permitting shown in this latest report provides further evidence of the gradual strengthening that we expected to see in housing markets toward the end of the year,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “We anticipate continued, slow improvement in housing starts and sales through 2012.”

The 9.3 percent gain in combined starts activity resulted from improvements in both the single- and multifamily sectors in November. Single-family starts posted a 2.3 percent gain to a 447,000-unit pace, which was their fastest rate since June of 2011. Meanwhile, the more volatile multifamily side surged 25.3 percent to a 238,000-unit pace – the fastest since September 2008.

Combined housing starts were up in three out of four regions in November, with the Northeast posting the biggest gain of 53.8 percent, the West posting a 22.6 percent increase and the South registering a 4.1 percent gain. The Midwest was the exception to the rule, with an 18.2 percent decline.

Permit issuance, which can be an indicator of future building activity, rose 5.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 681,000 units in November – the best pace since March of 2010. Single-family permits rose 1.6 percent to 435,000 units while multifamily permits rose 13.9 percent to 246,000 units, which was their strongest pace since October of 2008.

Regionally, combined single- and multifamily permits gained 32.8 percent in the Northeast and 21.4 percent in the West, but declined 1.9 percent in the Midwest and 2.6 percent in the South in November.

Builder Confidence Rises for the Third Consecutive Month

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes edged up two points from a downwardly revised number to 21 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for December, released yesterday. This marks a third consecutive month in which builder confidence has improved, and brings the index to its highest point since May of 2010.

“While builder confidence remains low, the consistent gains registered over the past several months are an indication that pockets of recovery are slowly starting to emerge in scattered housing markets,” said Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Reno, Nev. “However, the difficulties that both builders and buyers continue to experience in accessing credit for new homes are holding back potential sales even in areas where economic conditions are improving.”

“This is the first time that builder confidence has improved for three consecutive months since mid-2009, which signifies a legitimate though slowly emerging upward trend,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “While large inventories of foreclosed properties continue to plague the most distressed markets and consumer worries about job security and the challenges of selling an existing home remain significant factors, builders are reporting more inquiries and more interest among potential buyers than they have seen in previous months.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

Each of the HMI’s three component indexes registered a third consecutive month of improvement in December. The component gauging current sales conditions rose two points in the latest month to 22, while the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months edged up one point to 26. The component gauging traffic of prospective buyers gained three points to 18, which is its highest level since May of 2008.

Builder confidence primarily gained strength in the South in December, where a four-point gain to 25 brought that region’s HMI score to its highest level since March of 2008. A one-point gain to 16 was registered in the West, while the Midwest held unchanged at 24 and the Northeast slipped one point to 15.