September 20, 2025 “Real Estate Matters” Video Podcast – CHANGE

Real Estate Matters, for more than 11 years, the voice of real estate for Palm Coast and Flagler County. Sponsored by Veranda Bay, the new luxury Intracoastal Community in Flagler Beach.

The inevitability of change and its effects on the housing market.

You might also like: Does Growth Pay for Itself? – Rethinking the Question

Raw Show Notes

Our behind-the-scenes guide to the show’s flow, covering many topics we didn’t have time to get to on the show. This is raw and likely contains typos. Data reflects the date of the show’s recording.

Show Notes 9-20-2025

Recorded 9-19-2025

Welcome to Real Estate Matters, for over 11 years, the voice of real estate in Flagler County and Palm Coast, Florida.

I’m Toby Tobin, the publisher of GoToby.com, contributor to the Palm Coast Observer, and a Florida-licensed Realtor with The Landmark Group at Compass. Co-host Annamaria Long is in the studio with me today.

Thanks to Our Sponsors:

• Our Lead Sponsor is Veranda Bay – A private developing community of lots and luxury homes on the Intracoastal Waterway in Flagler Beach, featuring custom homes by Olsen Homes, AR Homes by Arthur Rutenberg, ICI Homes, and Hulbert Homes. Newly opened sections feature homes by Toll Brothers and Dream Finders. To learn more, visit VerandaBay.com.
• Flagler County Home Builders Association
• Hammock Community Church – On A1A in The Hammock – Small enough to know you but large enough to serve you. North of the toll bridge with the message sign out front. It’s not just for Hammockians. Like me, many people cross the bridge.

September MTD

• 122 Homes sold via the Flagler MLS at $372.4K vs 221 homes at $368,450 last September, DOM=60
• $250K and lower = 6, 3 cash, DOM 10
• $1M+ = 8, 6 cash, DOM 91
• Homes listed – 1,340
• Homes Pending – 330
• Median Price of homes pending – $389.9K
• GINNdex is down from 4.9 in July to 4.1
• Average 30-yr. The fixed-rate mortgage interest rate has dropped to 6.13%, the lowest since 2022. (Source: Freddie Mac)

What’s new on GoToby.com?

I recently posted an article on GoToby.com that summarizes the local single-family home market for August vs last year and YTD vs last year. It includes an interactive map with location pins and sales data.

Main Topic: Change

How many times have we read on social media or heard during the public comments portion of city council or county commission meetings versions of “When I moved here,….?” Or, “the ITT plan was….” Well, change happens. If you don’t believe me, find a picture of yourself when you moved here. Then look in the mirror. Change is not always kind, but it is inevitable. And it’s not predictable either.

Shirley and I moved here in 2000. We built our “final home,” a 2,450 SF pool home in Grand Haven. Eleven years later, at the depth of the great recession, we downsized to a condo. Years later, Shirley was diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease. She entered a long-term care facility over 2 ½ years ago. I sold the condo and moved into a 55+ community. So, I’m in my third “final home.” Shirley is now “late stage.” So I have little patience for those who think they can put a moratorium on change. Look again at the photograph of your former self and go back to the mirror.

ITT’s vision dates back to the early 1970s. Most homes in the U.S. at that time were owned by families with a single wage earner. The median price for a house was $23,000, approximately four times the average household income. Today, a home costs eight times the average household income and typically requires two wage earners.

This change has broad social implications. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there have been profound changes in the makeup of our population. A recent study measured four categories that signal society’s maturity.

• No longer living with parents
• In the labor force
• Married
• Have children

In 1975, 45% of the target age group aged 25-34, met all four criteria. By 2024, this had dropped to 21%. During the same period, the percentage of the overall population that fits into that age group decreased by 21%.

These are only a few of the factors affecting the housing market. That is why future land use maps, zoning ordinances, and land development codes have provisions for amendments. That is why they are periodically reviewed and revised.

Honesty

There were at least two popular social media threads prompted by my recent release of the Flagler County/Palm Coast Residential Development map. I was able to identify one poster who was blaming growth for the increases in property taxes. I searched public records. Since purchasing their home in 2021, its Just Value has increased 39%. During the same period, their property tax decreased 2%. They are the beneficiaries of Save Our Homes, which places the burden of the increasing cost of government disproportionately on newly arrived residents (growth).

What is the single most critical factor facing the housing market going forward? It’s not growth. It’s housing affordability.

Perspective (revisited)

Despite what may be portrayed on social media or by some politicians, Flagler County is not undergoing unchecked growth. The peak year for single-family residential permits was 2004, with 4,374 single-family home permits issued when the county’s population stood at 69,387. By 2024, the population had grown by 97% to 136,744, yet only 2,190 permits were issued.

Development projects often stall and later resume, typically under different developers. This process can repeat multiple times.

Grand Landings serves as a prime example. Initially envisioned by LandMar Group in 2004 as a fly-in community with an 11-court tennis facility and stadium court, it has since evolved into a thriving residential neighborhood. Some parcels were spun off to become separate developments. Some are still in the early stages of development. Plans for the tennis complex and airport access remain distant dreams.

Palm Coast’s original ITT lots were approved in 1977; of the 48,000 platted lots, approximately 7,000 remain undeveloped.

Town Center received development entitlements in 2004, but progress stalled with the real estate market crash. Today, 1,820 residential units entitled for development remain unbuilt after two decades.

Similarly, Palm Coast Park—located on both sides of US1 north of Palm Coast Parkway—was approved in 2004. Residential growth on the west side of US1 only began within the last five years.

Across all Palm Coast residential projects approved since 1999, 7,080 parcels are still unimproved.

Filler News:

• 30 fixed mortgage rate fell from 6.5% to 6.35, the largest weekly drop in a year. One year ago, the rate was 6.2%.
• Per WalletHub – Ranked four Florida cities among the best cities to retire. Orlando #1, Miami #4, Tampa #5, and Fort Lauderdale #7
• Homeownership Costs Have Jumped 26% Over 5 Years as Hidden Expenses Rise. Typical monthly expenses for homeowners surged by more than a quarter in the five years through 2024, a comprehensive new report from the U.S. Census Bureau has revealed.
• The median monthly ownership costs for U.S. homeowners with a mortgage jumped to $2,035 last year, according to new American Community Survey data released by the bureau on Thursday.
• That was up nearly 7% from a year earlier in nominal dollars, and a 26% increase from 2019, when the typical monthly cost for mortgage holders was just $1,609.
• A quarter of all owned households in the United States paid either a condominium or a homeowners association fee in 2024, with 3 million facing hefty monthly charges of more than $500, according to a new U.S. Census Bureau survey.

Wrap up:

Video podcasts of Real Estate Matters are now available on GoToby.com. Click on Podcasts on the top navigation bar.

If you have a question or a suggestion for Real Estate Matters or GoToby.com, reach out to me.

(386) 931-7124 or email me at Toby@GoToby.com

I’m Toby Tobin, and I approve this show.

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